Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Daniel Jones from EV Insight

Daniel JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Daniel Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 187.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 187.5 (-120) after it opened @ 188.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.20 seconds per snap.
The Houston Texans defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the league.
The Houston Texans safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 30.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
Daniel Jones has passed for significantly fewer yards per game (182.0) this season than he did last season (218.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
198
Passing Yards