Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for C.J. Stroud from EV Insight

C.J. StroudPassing Yards

Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-115) after it opened @ 250.5 (-118).

Pros

A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
C.J. Stroud has attempted 36.7 throws per game this year, grading out in the 76th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
With an impressive total of 269.0 adjusted passing yards per game (84th percentile), C.J. Stroud has been as one of the top passers in football this year.
With an exceptional 7.71 adjusted yards-per-target (88th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks as one of the most efficient passers in the NFL.
The Bengals pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, yielding 8.27 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Houston Texans feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.6% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
C.J. Stroud grades out as one of the least accurate passers in the league this year with a 61.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 16th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards