Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bengals vs. Texans
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-115) after it opened @ 250.5 (-118).
Pros
- A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- C.J. Stroud has attempted 36.7 throws per game this year, grading out in the 76th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
- With an impressive total of 269.0 adjusted passing yards per game (84th percentile), C.J. Stroud has been as one of the top passers in football this year.
- With an exceptional 7.71 adjusted yards-per-target (88th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks as one of the most efficient passers in the NFL.
- The Bengals pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, yielding 8.27 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Houston Texans feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.6% pass rate.
- Our trusted projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- C.J. Stroud grades out as one of the least accurate passers in the league this year with a 61.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 16th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards
247
Passing Yards
