Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-125/-109).

The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-125) after it opened @ 235.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 38.6 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Cons

Aaron Rodgers’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.6% to 66.3%.
Aaron Rodgers’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 6.91 yards-per-target compared to a 8.15 rate last season.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 200.0 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, conceding 6.64 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in football.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards