Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Lions vs. Eagles
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 50.5 (-135) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to total 11.5 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
- The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- The Detroit Lions defensive ends rank as the worst DE corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards
50
Rushing Yards
