Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Cardinals vs. Chiefs
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 49.5 (-115) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects James Conner to accrue 12.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- James Conner has earned 52.6% of his offense’s carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile among running backs.
- The Kansas City Chiefs safeties project as the 32nd-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Cardinals are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 10th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- The Arizona Cardinals have utilized some form of misdirection on just 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
