Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Andre Swift from EV Insight

D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards

Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 47.5 (-142) after it opened @ 51.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-most run-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects D’Andre Swift to notch 12.0 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
D’Andre Swift has garnered 50.3% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst DT corps in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Cons

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D’Andre Swift’s rushing efficiency (3.74 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (20th percentile among running backs).
D’Andre Swift has been among the bottom running backs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.40 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 10th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards