Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a giant 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to garner 5.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth has totaled a monstrous 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among TEs.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 2nd-slowest in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Pat Freiermuth has been among the bottom tight ends in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 3.27 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 16th percentile.
- The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on a lowly 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
