Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nico Collins from EV Insight

Nico CollinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-130) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

The Texans are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.83 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to total 6.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
Nico Collins has accrued a whopping 82.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among WRs.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (158.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.

Cons

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 55.9% pass rate.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Nico Collins has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league, hauling in a measly 57.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 9th percentile among WRs

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards