Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Jerick McKinnonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chiefs vs. Lions
Right now, Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 14.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- The Detroit Lions defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering 5.36 yards-per-carry.
- The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 27th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Jerick McKinnon has been among the bottom RBs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.26 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 24th percentile.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Rushing Yards
17
Rushing Yards
