Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-105/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-115) after it opened @ 18.5 (-113).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.73 seconds per snap.
Logan Thomas has run a route on 68.6% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Logan Thomas has posted a monstrous 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has given up the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (63.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.

Cons

The Commanders are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Logan Thomas has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, completing a measly 66.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 23rd percentile.
Logan Thomas has been among the least efficient receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging just 5.60 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 9th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards