Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 69.5 (-104) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Keenan Allen to total 9.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Keenan Allen has been among the weakest wide receivers in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.89 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 16th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 121.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, yielding 7.34 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends project as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards