Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for JuJu Smith-Schuster from EV Insight

JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards

Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 46.5 (-115) after it opened @ 47.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to be a much bigger part of his offense’s pass attack this week (18.8% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.3% in games he has played).

Cons

The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 10th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards