Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bears vs. 49ers
Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- Darnell Mooney has run a route on 93.0% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to total 7.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
- Darnell Mooney has compiled a colossal 88.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among wideouts.
- The San Francisco 49ers cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
- Darnell Mooney has been among the worst possession receivers in football, hauling in a mere 59.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 18th percentile among WRs
- The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
