Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.1% pass rate.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 10th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- Christian Kirk has been among the weakest wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 2.39 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 5th percentile.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
