Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Titans vs. Giants
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 22.5 (-110).
Pros
- Austin Hooper has been a key part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 12.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 77th percentile among TEs.
- Austin Hooper has accrued a whopping 21.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among tight ends.
- The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The New York Giants defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Titans are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 27.34 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Tennessee Titans O-line has given their QB a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
