Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Lions vs. Eagles
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 53.5 (-115) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 8.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 22.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in a stellar 78.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks rank as the best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
