2025 NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. Clippers Series Preview and Analysis
Alex Christenson
New York Jets 
New England Patriots 
Miami Dolphins 
Buffalo Bills 
Pittsburgh Steelers 
Cleveland Browns 
Cincinnati Bengals 
Baltimore Ravens 
Tennessee Titans 
Jacksonville Jaguars 
Indianapolis Colts 
Houston Texans 
Las Vegas Raiders 
Los Angeles Chargers 
Kansas City Chiefs 
Denver Broncos 
Washington Commanders 
Philadelphia Eagles 
New York Giants 
Dallas Cowboys 
Minnesota Vikings 
Green Bay Packers 
Detroit Lions 
Chicago Bears 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
New Orleans Saints 
Carolina Panthers 
Atlanta Falcons 
San Francisco 49ers 
Seattle Seahawks 
Los Angeles Rams 
Arizona Cardinals 
Boston Celtics 
Brooklyn Nets 
Philadelphia 76ers 
New York Knicks 
Toronto Raptors 
Chicago Bulls 
Detroit Pistons 
Milwaukee Bucks 
Cleveland Cavaliers 
Indiana Pacers 
Orlando Magic 
Atlanta Hawks 
Charlotte Hornets 
Miami Heat 
Washington Wizards 
Denver Nuggets 
Minnesota Timberwolves 
Oklahoma City Thunder 
Portland Trail Blazers 
Utah Jazz 
LA Clippers 
Golden State Warriors 
Los Angeles Lakers 
Phoenix Suns 
Sacramento Kings 
Dallas Mavericks 
Houston Rockets 
Memphis Grizzlies 
New Orleans Pelicans 
San Antonio Spurs 
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 230.5 (-133) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).
Pros
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most on-target passers in the league since the start of last season with an impressive 67.4% Completion%, ranking in the 87th percentile.
- The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins have utilized play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 118.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
228
Passing Yards
228
Passing Yards