Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 237.5 (-114).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Buccaneers have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 67.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Baker Mayfield has attempted a mere 11.2 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 6th percentile among QBs.
Baker Mayfield has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging 63.0 yards per game while ranking in the 6th percentile.
Baker Mayfield has been among the least efficient QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging just 5.89 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 21st percentile.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 6th-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards