Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names who he believes will leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Scoring thresholds – QB: 19 fantasy points, RB: 12 points, WR: 11 points, TE: 10 points; 0.5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 1 Lames in the comments section below.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
(92% started in DK DFS: $6,400)
Matchup: at SF
Vegas line/Total: SF -7, 47.5
The Dachshund of the Desert, arguably the third- or fourth-best positional target in drafts, could leave an odoriferous “present” on investor pillows, a gift Odell Beckham may find arousing. San Francisco’s defense again boasts proven ballhawks. Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Mosely and slot corner K’Waun Williams surrendered a combined 70.4 passer rating and 0.84 yards per snap to their assignments in 2019. As a collective only five passers, Murray one of them (twice), surpassed 20 fantasy points against the Niners last season.
Because of his dual-threat artfulness and addition of all-world $54 million receiver DeAndre Hopkins, Murray is in store for a banner campaign. Advancements in several critical areas such as adjusted completion percentage (QB18 in ‘19), deep-ball passer rating (QB16) and red-zone completion percentage (QB24) will unlock a 30-TD beast. However, the staunch opponent combined with Hopkins’ possible limitations due to a tender hamstring arrow to a modest opening week tally.
Fearless forecast: 224 passing yards, 2 pass touchdowns, 2 turnovers, 32 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 18.2 fantasy points
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
(99%; $8,500)
Matchup: vs. PIT
Vegas line/Total: PIT -5.5, 47.5
New York’s Thighmaster is script agnostic, a multidimensional rusher whose powerful lower frame punishes opponents whether through vertical or north-south gains. For the love of Tiki Barber, it’s why he was the consensus No. 2 overall pick in season-long fantasy football drafts. Last fall, he amassed 1,441 combined yards and eight TDs over 13 games, finishing RB3 in yards created per carry and RB13 in YAC per attempt (3.23). And he was able to achieve that production level functioning behind a shoddy offensive line which ranked No. 22 in run-blocking efficiency. Make no bones about it, Saquon is an undeniable stud.
However, as discussed ad nauseum in this column over the years, no player has full immunity from downtrodden weeks. They happen. In a matchup-based game, it’s our job as fanalysts to pinpoint when they could occur. Four times last year, Barkley failed to cross the 10-point line in PPR leagues. Against a rigid Pittsburgh D anchored by premier run defender Casey Hayward (No. 4 in total stops in ‘19) and T.J. Watt, Week 1 could mark the decorated RB’s first hiccup. Most publications pegged the Steelers as an elite defensive unit, particularly against the run. They could easily match or improve on 2019’s 3.8 yards per carry allowed to RBs.
Fearless forecast: 17 carries, 66 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 24 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 11.5 fantasy points
Le'Veon Bell, RB, New York Jets
(73%; $5,600)
Matchup: at BUF
Vegas line/Total: BUF -6.5, 39.5
Through rumored hamstring tightness and aggrieved feelings, Bell is a fading star who’s losing considerable luminosity with each ineffective touch. His decline increased in intensity last year as he ranked RB43 in YAC per attempt (2.67), outside the top-20 in missed tackle percentage (18.9%) and RB46 in yards created per carry. Unable to juke a parked Prius, he’s only saved by volume, which, after Frank Gore’s strong showing in camp, is in question. Some Jets beat writers have speculated Bell may only shoulder 60% of the opportunity share to start the season.
The Jets’ offensive line (No. 28 in run-blocking efficiency in ‘19) did Bell zero favors last year. As a result of the RB’s deterioration and unmitigated bull rushes on Sam Darnold, the front office made a concerted effort to upgrade the unit this offseason. It has only one direction to go. Still, it will be tested out of the gate against a Bills defensive front that recorded 44 total sacks (No. 12 in the NFL) and surrendered a mere 103.1 rush yards per game last fall. How Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips plug gaps will ultimately determine Buffalo’s stoutness versus the run. Similar to his Week 17 finish against Buffalo last season (77 total yards, 0 TDs), disappointment is on the agenda for the once prized fantasy RB.
Fearless forecast: 15 carries, 65 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 16 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns 10.1 fantasy points
A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans
(87%; $6,300)
Matchup: at DEN
Vegas line/Total: PK, 41
The spitting image of Andre Johnson, Brown is a stick of dynamite whose wick is always lit. As his magnificent rookie season proved, he’s practically in a class by himself when it comes to downfield eruptions. Last season, he emerged as the pacesetter in YAC per reception (8.88) and yards per catch (20.2) among wideouts with at least 50 targets. Unless his 16.7% red-zone target percentage and overall 84 looks from 2019 sharply rise, his 52-1051-8 output from his rookie campaign screams REGRESSION. Still, it’s hard not to marvel at his inviting talents.
The Broncos, in the Week 1 capper, present a stiff challenge for the sophomore receiver. Gone is Chris Harris, but Vic Fangio and Co. are confident A.J. Bouye will fill the void seamlessly. The corner slumped last season giving up a career high 103.8 passer rating to his assignments. However, if the 2018 (79.7 passer rating allowed) or 2017 (49.6) versions resurface in the Mile High City, he, Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson should form at least a top-half unit. Von Miller’s untimely season-ending ankle injury, though, increases responsibility. Brown will have his share of top-10 performances, but temper expectations in the opener.
Fearless forecast: 3 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.8 fantasy points
Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys
(92%; $7,000)
Matchup: at LAR
Vegas line/Total: DAL -3, 52
A gender reveal using explosives in oppressive heat surrounded by bone-dry vegetation. That’s next-level dumb. And so is trusting Cooper to do much of anything against a Rams secondary trotting out a once ascending corner determined to regain his All-Pro form. Jalen Ramsey rarely backed up the incessant jawings last season, yielding an uncharacteristic 96.4 passer rating, 67.2% catch percentage and 1.15 yards per snap. Though Troy Hill shined in coverage a year ago (45.1 catch percentage allowed), on the whole, L.A. somewhat underwhelmed bodying up wideouts. The Rams ranked No. 19 in fantasy points surrendered to WRs.
Donning a tarnished crown, Cooper sits on the throne of wide receiver inconsistency. Six times he failed to reach 10 fantasy points in PPR leagues. It was not unheard of for him to detonate for 150-3 one week and barely register a peep the next. On intermediate slants, curls and outs, as his success rates prove, he struggled mightily. His strength resides on explosive pass plays downfield, which L.A. infrequently allowed (6.9 pass yards per attempt in ‘19). Setting the tone for the season, Cooper, per usual, will be largely matchup dependent.
Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.9 fantasy points
Bonus lames (over 50% started)
RB: Devin Singletary, BUF (Line: BUF -6.5; DK: $5,400) — Spines shiver whenever the dreaded “RBBC” phrase is uttered by team coaches or local beat writers. Based on Singletary’s nasty case of fumblitis, a timeshare approach is distinctly possible to begin the season. If his ills are not quickly cured, a complete backfield hijacking by Zack Moss is entirely on the table. The rookie posted the highest YAC per attempt mark (4.1) among FBS rushers last year plowing through contact for the Utah Utes. Given the enhanced risks and unfavorable matchup — New York’s strength this season (if it has one) will be defending the run — Singletary is a flush draw on the river not worth chasing. (FF: 13-55-4-18-0, 9.3 fantasy points)
WR: Calvin Ridley, ATL (Line: SEA -1.5; DK: $6,100) — This summer hype surrounding Ridley rippled through the fantasy community like a highly contagious disease spread at a tightly-packed biker gathering. His final ADP in 0.5 PPR formats landed at a pricey WR15. Checking in at WR20 in total air yards and WR21 in contested catch percentage last year, he’s a riveting downfield talent. However, his WR72 YAC per reception left much to be desired. With Julio Jones hogging targets and an unsavory matchup on tap against a Seattle secondary featuring Shaq Griffin (0.94 yds/snap allowed in ‘19) and Jamal Adams (0.31), the Riddler could boggle investor minds Sunday. (FF: 4-60-0, 8.0 fantasy points)
WR: Odell Beckham, CLV (Line: BAL -8; DK: $5,900) — Waking up Tuesday to “Odell” trending on Twitter, the mind immediately drifted to a dark place. Uncovering the reason why didn’t solve the issue. Why he was making the rounds on social media is symbolic of his 2019 fantasy season and possible 2020 start. Unpleasant numerical secretions are on the horizon. On the whole, he’s a legit bounceback candidate. His underlying data didn’t suffer nearly as much compared to his superficial production. Still, his Week 1 opponent, Baltimore, held him to a 6-64-1 line in two games last season. Marlon Humphrey (72.4 passer rating allowed in ‘19) and Marcus Peters (75.8) are no pushovers. Expect a flushable start. (FF: 4-68-0, 8.8 fantasy points)
TE: Hunter Henry, LAC (Line: LAC -3.5; DK: $5,300) — The last time Tyrod Taylorz took snaps as the starter in 2018 with the Cleveland Browns, he ranked dead last in adjusted completion percentage among passes with at least 100 dropbacks. The journeyman has never had a tight end with the raw talents of Henry, but his inaccuracies present an ominous outlook. Henry is a consistent end-zone spiker, 12.5 percent of his catches have gone for TDs in his career. His matchup, too, isn’t the poorest as the Bengals conceded a 66-798-6 line to the position in 2019. It’s simply Taylor who needs to show this follically challenged writer he can deliver passes on time and accurately. (FF: 4-56-0, 7.6 fantasy points)
DST: Minnesota Vikings (Line: Min -2.5; DK: $2,500) — Six interceptions. Six. That’s the number of picks Aaron Rodgers has thrown in his past 32 regular-season games. You might have better odds of witnessing a black rhino in its natural habitat than seeing the future HOFer make an errant, dumbfounding throw. His rare mistakes combined with Green Bay’s upper-crust offensive line suggest Minnesota, despite upgrades across its defense, is a stretch play in Week 1. If you’re running down a defense to stream, Indy, the L.A. Chargers and Detroit are viable alternatives. (FF: 20 PA, 377 YDSA, 3 SCKs, 1 TO, 5.0 fantasy points)
