Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy football world has already gotten a taste of Underdog Fantasy’s amazing interface in best ball drafts, with this year’s Best Ball Mania awarding $15,000,000 in prizes. But believe it or not, for a few years now, they’ve also offered a “Battle Royale” mode, which is a draft format, solely based on the Sunday afternoon games. In the Daily Battle Royale mode, you’re entered in a draft with five other players, drafting a lineup that will compete against every other lineup signed up in the Battle Royale. This week’s main Battle Royale contests are going to have a $300,000 prize pool with $30,000 offered for first place, which is not too shabby for a $5 entry. Here are some details on the Week 4 contest:
Now that we’re ready to build some lineups, there are three important rules to apply in every single lineup that you’re drafting.
- Make sure to have some sort of stack in your lineup – It doesn’t necessarily need to be a full game stack, but with only six QBs selected in each draft, there should be a way for you to get the QB you need in your stack. If you start your draft with WR, WR through the first two rounds, 99% of the time, you’ll have the ability to pair one of them up with a QB in the third round. More often than not though, you’ll even be able to wait until later in the draft to put together a QB/WR combo.
- Pay attention to your competition – If you don’t have the ability to give 100% attention to your draft, including the five other teams drafting in your lobby, don’t enter the contest. You can make or break your drafts just by keeping an eye on the positions the others are drafting. Every single draft will have a scenario that requires you to put the pieces of the puzzle together. For example: if you’re in the fifth round, drafting in fifth position, and still need to draft a QB but see that the person drafting sixth has already drafted a QB, you definitely want to avoid picking your QB until the sixth round because there’s no way the person drafting sixth can pick a QB.
- Be creative with at least two of your picks – When it’s all said and done, there’s only going to be 36 players (6 QBs and 30 RB/WR/TEs) drafted in any given slate. Rostership is integral in every single GPP contest in DFS, and that includes these Battle Royale’s. It probably comes as no surprise that the top 36 players in ADP dominate the rostership. It doesn’t take much to differentiate your lineup, and you’re still going to be able to draft some pretty damn good players who have an ADP outside the top 36.
Week 4 Battle Royale Strategy
Here is the current top 36 in ADP for Week 4’s Battle Royale:
Top Pairings
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
The Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs combo is available to virtually anyone drafting from the 4, 5 and 6 slots. For whatever reason, Allen thrives against the Dolphins. Last season, he threw for 704 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in two games against them, also contributing 124 rushing yards in the two games. Diggs wasn’t much of a factor in those performances, but he rebounded in the Wild Card matchup, catching seven balls for 114 yards, including a 54-yard bomb where Diggs was tackled at the 5-yard line. The Bills are also using Diggs all throughout the field, getting 30% of the snaps each from the left, slot and right side of the field, which makes me more comforted that they’ll be able to find the best possible matchups for him throughout the game.
Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts, and Puka Nacua or Tutu Atwell, Los Angeles Rams
Zack Moss still isn’t getting much love despite his usage being through the roof. It’s truly a one-man show in the backfield for the Colts right now, and Moss is certainly making the most out of his opportunities. I don’t see it being much different on Sunday against a Rams team that has actually performed well against the RB position this season. The FTN Pace Tool shows that the Colts and Rams are currently fifth and sixth, respectively, in plays per 60 minutes, and that the Colts actually are in the no huddle an astounding 21.1% of the time, highest in the NFL. I think Moss at RB7 is a huge opportunity to stack with any lineup that includes Puka Nacua, who is currently being drafted as the WR8, or Tutu Atwell, who is currently the WR27. Basically, if you roster Puka, you better just go ahead and pick up Moss right after, or if you get Moss, you can easily get Tutu in the last round.
Christian McCaffrey or George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers, and Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
I think there are quite a few ways to get creative with this 49ers/Cardinals game. In the Week 2 Underdog article, I mentioned that if you have the first or second pick and are able to draft Christian McCaffrey, you should be able to easily find someone on the other side of the field in the later rounds to get some correlation. The 49ers have a top-three defensive unit in the league, but regardless, they can still allow their fair share of fantasy points. While we highlighted the history between the 49ers and Rams — namely, Cooper Kupp historically getting his in the vast majority of 49ers/Rams games, there are a few parallels in this 49ers/Cardinals matchup that we might be able to work into a McCaffrey lineup or even a George Kittle lineup. Kittle is this week’s TE2, but history suggests he probably should be the TE1. He scored two touchdowns in each of their meetings last season, and this year’s Cardinals defense is currently allowing the third-most receiving yards to the TE position. If we’re going to get some exposure to the Cardinals if we draft either McCaffrey or Kittle, I think the play has to be the current WR38 for Week 4, Marquise Brown. Brown leads all Cardinals receivers in snaps, routes run, targets, target percentage, receiving yards and touchdowns. He clearly has earned the trust of Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs, who has been finding Hollywood all throughout the field.
Top Low-Rostered Plays
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
Justin Fields is being drafted as the QB9 in the Battle Royale this week. I know we are all aware of Fields’ struggles this season, but it’s borderline insane to have him go undrafted in 90-95% of drafts. The Broncos have the 31st-ranked overall defense and 32nd-ranked rushing defense in the NFL. Yes, those stats are a bit skewed due to last week’s “performance” against the Dolphins, but we can’t forget that this same defense allowed 35 points to the Washington Commanders the previous week. Again, Fields has been terrible from a real-life perspective and fantasy perspective this season, but we cannot forget that his athleticism consistently shined throughout the 2022 season. If we aren’t rostering Fields this week, there’s no real reason to roster him at any other point this season. Another thing to add is that we can feel free to roster Fields completely naked. The only other Bear I feel comfortable rostering with Fields in a stack is Cole Kmet, and that’s really only going to happen if the top 4-5 TEs get taken in front of me.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Alexander Mattison is being drafted as the RB17 in the Battle Royale this week. Even though Mattison hasn’t put up Dalvin Cook-like numbers and the Vikings made a trade for Cam Akers, he’s coming off his best game of the season and gained some confidence, seeing his highest snap share (80%), and touches (25) of the season. If I’m going for the Adam Thielen revenge narrative, I’m more likely to pair him with Mattison than anyone else on the Vikings roster.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Jakobi Meyers is being drafted as the WR23 in the Battle Royale this week. After leaving Week 1 early and missing Week 2 to a concussion, he came back last week against the Steelers and continued to get fed targets by Jimmy Garoppolo. The Raiders and Chargers have a pretty deep history of high scoring games, and with this year’s version of the Chargers in high scoring games every week and struggling through the air, it doesn’t make any sense for Meyers to be the WR23 and go undrafted in the majority of these contests.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens is being drafted as the WR29 in the Battle Royale this week. He’s being drafted as the WR29. On the other end of the field, Tank Dell is being drafted as the WR22. Both are absolutely viable as low-rostered plays, but with Pickens as the clear-cut number one option for the Steelers, it’s tough to comprehend why he isn’t being rostered. His numbers have improved across the board this season, including Snap% (76% to 87.8%) and Target% (15.5% to 22.8%), and I think a big reason why is that he’s running shorter routes. His average depth of target was a super-high 15.1 yards last season compared to this season’s 10.3. He’s running more shallow routes, and doing so increases his floor (which was virtually nonexistent last season) without sacrificing his upside.
Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
Gerald Everett is being drafted as the TE8 in the Battle Royale this week. I understand it’s easy for us to go all in on Joshua Palmer or Quentin Johnston in the absence of Mike Williams, but in my eyes, Everett should be the guy who gets the boost. Palmer has seen a nice bump without Williams on the field, but we don’t exactly know how different the dynamics will be with Johnston on the roster. Per the FTN Splits Tool, without Williams on the field, Everett is averaging roughly 18 more receiving yards per game, and with a nice matchup against the Raiders, who are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the TE position, I can see Everett contributing to a potential tourney-winning lineup.
