Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
After a few gross, low-scoring fantasy week, we have a Week 10 with some potential high-scoring games. There’s also some cheap running back chalk in DFS that will be highly owned but make lineup construction easier.
Without further ado, let’s talk about the massive chalk this week that is D’Ernest Johnson.
D’Ernest Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns
With all my heart, I would love to fade him this week. The last time he drew a start, he went off, so the public has that in the back of its mind. He’ll likely be at least 70% rostered in the high-stakes GPPs. I just can’t fade him, though. With no other running back competition, it’s conceivable he’s out there on 85% snaps or more. His salary is also pretty low on both DraftKings ($4,700) and FanDuel ($5,400).
I could see Johnson busting and putting up 7-8 points, but his salary is so low that isn’t a roster killer. He doesn’t catch many passes, so his floor isn’t that high, but he’s still likely getting 15-plus touches anyways. I don’t love him so much that I’ll have him in every lineup, but I’ll likely match the public on him. If Johnson’s price was $1,500 or so higher, I probably would be fading him this week.
And now let’s look at the other key names for Week 10.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
This is the running back value play I like most this week. Ingram will certainly be chalky, but not as chalky as Johnson. My guess he will play roughly 75% of the snaps (or more), with perhaps Ty Montgomery or Dwayne Washington filling in some.
Both the Saints and the Browns have similar team totals, but Mark Ingram seems to be more involved in the passing game. I don’t really see a great reason why Johnson should be chalkier than Ingram, but he certainly will be. I want to have more Ingram than the field, so he’ll be in the majority of my lineups.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
This is your best chance at a real buy-low opportunity on Christian McCaffrey. With no injury designation and near 20 touches last week, it’s likely CMC will be back to being the focal point of the Panther offense this week. His salary is about $1,000 or so below usual, so you get a little bit of a discount. The Panthers are large dogs with a lowish team total against the Cardinals, which will keep his ownership down. He gets targeted so much and just seems to generate yards no matter what so that doesn’t concern me as much. He’s probably the star player I will have the most ownership on compared to the public.
To be clear about my running back strategy, it’s more or less matching the D’Ernest chalk, going heavy on chalkish Mark Ingram, and then going contrarian with being heavy on McCaffrey. I will have a little Dalvin Cook, James Conner and Austin Ekeler, but I’ll be fading or at least being underweight most of the 15-20% chalk like Najee Harris, D’Andre Swift, Ezekiel Elliott, etc.
Tyler Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s unclear if Chris Godwin will be playing or not. If he does, I expect Tyler Johnson will get some decent rostership on DraftKings, since he is near minimum price there. Even if Godwin does play, Johnson is getting about 65% or snaps (similar to what Antonio Brown got) lately. Washington’s pass defense just isn’t good, and I want to have Tom Brady exposure. I don’t love Johnson on FanDuel, but he’s decent value filler on DraftKings or as part of a Brady stack.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Is Mike Evans really not going to be that chalky if Godwin is out? Really? He won’t be? How is Tom Brady not a top-three rostered quarterback this week? They’re playing Washington, and they’re expected to put up a lot of points. Do people really think they’re just going to chew the clock up with Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones the whole game? I don’t get it. Needless to say, the pretty boy will be my most-rostered quarterback this week, and I’ll certainly be using his top healthy receiver. Maybe I’m just old and out of touch and don’t see why everyone isn’t rushing to roster these guys.
A.J. Green, WR, Arizona Cardinals
A.J. Green is my favorite value receiver this week for a few reasons. I’m operating under the assumption that Kyler Murray will likely play, but DeAndre Hopkins will be out. This leaves the Cardinals with their All-Star quarterback and quite a few targets and air yards to go around. Green has been rejuvenated in Arizona, and he is a near-every-down player. Both he and Christian Kirk look to be in line for a pretty great game against a susceptible Panther secondary, but Green’s price is lower, so I like him more. I think the DFS public will operate with its usual near-term bias and just James Conner due to how well he performed last week. This makes targeting the Cardinals receivers all the better as low-rostered leverage play against the Conner chalk.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots
I don’t love chalky Jakobi Meyers, but I find myself putting him in a fair amount of lineups. The top receiver for the Patriots has gone so long without a touchdown, you have to figure it’s coming any day now. Playing against a not-so-great Browns secondary seems to be a good time as any to finally hit paydirt at a low price tag to boot. I’ll at least try to match the public on him.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team
He’s had a very boom-and-bust year. I love wide receivers with high upside and low rostership; I just hope and pray to the DFS gods that they may finally bestow upon me a boom for one of my more used wide receivers this week. It’s possible the Bucs just totally stuff Washington, but you have to expect WFT will at least try to get McLaurin involved.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions
None of the elite tight ends are on this slate. Kyle Pitts, the highest-priced tight end, will get a decent amount of DFS use since he is presumably the top target for the Falcons, but I’m not a huge fan of a chalky Pitts or counting on the Falcons in general. Hockenson seems to be consistently getting around 10 targets and reaching value despite not getting a touchdown since Week 2. With low rostership and a pretty high floor, he’s one of my favorite tight end plays this week.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Like he was last week, Dalton Schultz continues to be my other favorite tight end. With Blake Jarwin out, he should continue to get plenty of looks. He’s gone from playing 70-80% of snaps to 95% last week. Once the Cowboys start scoring again, he’ll likely be considered an elite tight end. Might as well roster him now before everyone realizes that.
