Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
This article is going to cover my Showdown rules and rankings for DraftKings and FanDuel. I tend to go with a correlated build that “tells a story.” I find that wins more than it loses. The general showdown rules I outlined in this article will remain accurate for most games, but they can change depending on player salary and team scheme. Make sure to review the rules at the top of the article as well as the rules for the FTN Optimizer at the bottom.
Today we have two showdown slates kicking off at the same time. Below are my rankings and rules for each slate.
Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles
FanDuel MVP
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
MVP Tier 1: Jalen Hurts (heavy focus)
MVP Tier 2: Antonio Gibson
Flex Rankings
Tier 1
- Jalen Hurts
- Dallas Goedert
- Antonio Gibson
- DeVonta Smith
- Dallas Goedert
- Miles Sanders
- Jake Elliott
- Garrett Gilbert
- Terry McLaurin (seems expensive)
- Adam Humphries (should be a lot of checkdowns to the slot and tight end)
- John Bates/Ricky Seals-Jones (RSJ is questionable and the Eagles are the worst against TE)
- Quez Watkins
- DeAndre Carter
- Jalen Reagor
- Kenneth Gainwell (possible negative game script for Gainwell)
Tier 2
- Jordan Howard (possible goal line or garbage time score)
- Boston Scott
- Cam Sims
Tier 3
DraftKings CPT
You want the highest scoring player or the best value at CPT on DraftKings. The salaries adjust on DK from flex to CPT. I tend to lean to pass catchers here, because of the 1-point PPR structure but we have seen higher-priced players take down the CPT spot a lot lately because the value is hitting, making the top scorer ideal.
CPT Tier 1: Jalen Hurts
CPT Tier 2: DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
CPT Tier 3: Antonio Gibson, Miles Sanders
CPT Tier 4: Eagles Defense, Adam Humpries
Flex Rankings
Tier 1
- Jalen Hurts
- Dallas Goedert
- Antonio Gibson
- DeVonta Smith
- Dallas Goedert
- Miles Sanders
- Jake Elliott
- Garrett Gilbert
- Terry McLaurin
- Adam Humphries
- John Bates/Ricky Seals-Jones
- Quez Watkins
- DeAndre Carter
- Jalen Reagor (he’s pretty cheap, but also pretty unreliable)
- Kenneth Gainwell
Tier 2
- Cam Sims
- Jordan Howard (possible goal line or garbage time)
- Boston Scott
Tier 3
MME FTN Optimizer rules for this slate
- Don’t use full salary
- Lock Jalen Hurts into every lineup
- Pair Hurts with at least one pass-catcher
- Pair the WFT team QB with at least two pass-catchers
- Don’t play more than two WR/TE per team, per lineup without their QB
- Don’t use more than one kicker
- Don’t use more than one (Williams, Patterson, Sims, Brown, Arcega-Whiteside)
- Don’t play more than two Eagles RBs. It feels like a good night to get weird with them.
- Don’t use more than one TE per lineup
- Don’t use a kicker against the opposing defense
- Don’t play a kicker “naked”. Someone has to move them down the field
- Don’t use more than one defense per lineup.
- Don’t overlook the “general rules” article linked at the top of this article
Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams
FanDuel MVP
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
MVP Tier 1: Matthew Stafford
MVP Tier 2: Cooper Kupp
MVP Tier 3: Rams starting RB (whoever is announced)
Flex Rankings
Tier 1
- Matthew Stafford
- Cooper Kupp
- Russell Wilson
- DK Metcalf
- Rashaad Penny
- Darrell Henderson/Sony Michel (take the starter)
- Odell Beckham
- D’Wayne Eskridge
- Van Jefferson
- Matt Gay
- Freddie Swain
- Jason Myers
- Gerald Everett
- Will Dissly
- Kendall Blanton (value)
Tier 2
DraftKings CPT
You want the highest scoring player or the best value at CPT on DraftKings. The salaries adjust on DK from flex to CPT. I tend to lean to pass catchers here, because of the 1-point PPR structure but we have seen higher-priced players take down the CPT spot a lot lately because the value is hitting, making the top scorer ideal.
CPT Tier 1: Cooper Kupp
CPT Tier 2: Matt Stafford, DK Metcalf
CPT Tier 3: Odell Beckham
Flex Rankings
Tier 1
- Cooper Kupp
- Matthew Stafford
- DK Metcalf
- Russell Wilson
- Rashaad Penny
- Darrell Henderson/Sony Michel
- Odell Beckham
- D’Wayne Eskridge (value)
- Van Jefferson
- Matt Gay
- Freddie Swain
- Jason Myers
- Gerald Everett
- Will Dissly
- Kendall Blanton (value)
- Rams Defense
Tier 2
MME FTN Optimizer rules for this slate
- Don’t use full salary
- I will be overexposed to DK Metcalf
- Lock in Stafford with two pass-catchers on DK
- Lock in Cooper Kupp on both sites
- Pair your quarterback with at least two pass catchers (Russ hasn’t been getting it done on the ground)
- Don’t play more than two WR/TE per team, per lineup without their QB
- Don’t use more than one kicker on FanDuel, and likely DraftKings too (to limit combinations)
- Don’t use more than one Seattle RB
- Don’t use more than one (Dallas, Peterson, Hopkins)
- Don’t use more than one TE per lineup
- Don’t use a kicker against the opposing defense
- Don’t play a kicker “naked”. Someone has to move them down the field
- Don’t use more than one defense per lineup.
- Don’t overlook the “general rules” article linked at the top of this article
Put all of the above rules into the FTN lineupEDGE Optimizer.
