Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’re running through our 2023 fantasy sleepers and busts series with a look at 2023 RB sleepers. Check out more in the series here:
Looking for a running back to draft later in the order? Here are four potential sleeper candidates for the 2023 fantasy season.
These four running backs are currently being drafted outside the top 24 at their position, making them excellent sleeper candidates for fantasy football in 2023.
2023 Fantasy Football RB Sleeper Candidates
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Finally, Alexander Mattison is the RB41 right now but has potential upside due to rumors of a Dalvin Cook trade. The Minnesota Vikings recently gave him a two-year, $7 million contract, suggesting that he may have more value than just a straight backup.
In six games without Cook since 2020, Mattison has averaged over 20 PPR points per game.
His value as an elite handcuff has always been apparent, but with the new contract and Cook’s potential departure, his realistic upside has increased.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White is currently the RB28. He will be the lead back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after Leonard Fournette‘s departure. White had two top-10 finishes last year and four straight games as an RB2 or better in Weeks 10-14.
In one game without Fournette, he had 19.9 PPR points, 14 rush attempts and nine receptions, showcasing his versatility and ability to play in the three-down role. He has a Day 2 draft pedigree from 2022, and it would be a genuine surprise to see White finish outside of the top 20 RBs in fantasy PPG this year.
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
Tyler Allgeier finished as an RB3 or worse in 10 of his first 12 games but erupted after the team’s Week 14 bye, posting three straight RB1 performances and four straight games with at least 13 PPR points.
Despite a small team target share of just 5% last year, his strong breakaway rate kept him afloat for fantasy. He had a 30% breakaway rate, which was 11th among qualifying RBs, just ahead of Christian McCaffrey and teammate Cordarrelle Patterson.
Allegeier may not see his target share grow this year with Patterson returning to the fold. But he has certainly earned more work as the team’s leading rusher and appears to have earned the high-value red-zone carries as well.
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
Khalil Herbert offers potential value due to uncertainty in the team’s backfield. The departure of David Montgomery has created a void in the Bears backfield that I’m betting on Herbert to mostly fill – though the team also added D’Onta Foreman via free agency.
He and Foreman are both cheap and solid dart throws. But give me Herbert (RB29), who showed great explosiveness with a 31% breakaway rate (10th among RBs) and the ability to create yards with little space (against stacked boxes, he averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, the highest in the NFL by a significant margin.)
For comparison: Foreman forced 34 missed tackles on 203 attempts, while Herbert forced 29 on 129 attempts.
