Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s time for our look at sleeper QB candidates for fantasy football in 2023. Yes, we know Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts are good – but what if you decide to wait on a QB?
I can start by saying: QB feels pretty gross in fantasy football this year. The top is elite. Tier 2 is fine. Tier 3 and beyond – starting with Daniel Jones being drafted in the top-12 – just feels wrong.
But alas, that’s where we’re going to live for the “QB sleepers” article. All QBs mentioned in this article are currently being drafted outside of the top 12 at the position.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Murray is being treated as a middle-of-the-pack QB2. He’s being drafted as the QB20 over on Underdog best ball, and it’s difficult for me to wrap my head around. Murray’s PPG fantasy finishes among QBs the last three years:
- 2022: Ninth
- 2021: Fourth
- 2020: Sixth
- 2020-2022 (as a whole): Third behind Allen and Mahomes
The real question here is whether Murray will be ready for the start of the season, and if not, how much time will he miss. I’m certainly on board with him outside of the top 12 for this reason, but it’s impossible to argue that his ceiling isn’t higher than every other QB going in his vicinity.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff is often overlooked in fantasy football drafts, but he showed last year that he can still be a reliable QB1 option. In fact, he finished as the overall QB8 and had four top-12 games in his final six outings.
Goff and the Lions return Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams to the receiving corps. Williams is a former first-round pick in 2021 and had just three touches as a rookie, all of which went for 40+ yards, making him an explosive playmaker.
Goff threw for the fifth-most touchdowns last year (29) and the sixth-most attempts (587). He was also top-10 in adjusted completion rate, per the FTN Fantasy advanced QB stats tool (75.3%). While Goff may not have the same upside as other top-tier QBs, he offers solid value as a QB2 with QB1 potential.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford had a disappointing year in 2022, finishing outside the top 25 in fantasy points per game. However, this was such a stark departure from 2021 that it’s not worth completely writing him off yet. Remember, he was a top-five fantasy QB in 2021.
Stafford still has Cooper Kupp and, at least as of this writing, Allen Robinson (whatever that’s worth these days). With his poor performance last year, Stafford is currently being drafted as the QB25, suggesting that many people expect a repeat of 2022. However, last year should have been better for Stafford, as he scored lower than his expected fantasy points in 8-of-9 games. With a healthy roster and a new season, Stafford could easily outperform his draft position and be a valuable QB option in 2023.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson had a forgettable 2022 season, with career lows in completion rate (60.5%), rating (84.4), and TD-INT ratio (16-11).
However, he still has a talented group of weapons in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. With a new coach in Sean Payton, Wilson has the potential to bounce back in a big way.
While it is almost impossible to find positive stats from Wilson’s 2022 season, one thing worth noting is that he was seventh among qualifying QBs in average depth of target (aDOT) at 8.83. He also attempted a deep ball on 16% of his passes, tied for most in the NFL last year, and his 29 deep completions ranked first.
If and when things click in Denver, Wilson could return to his elite QB1 form and exceed expectations in fantasy football drafts.
