Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.
For all of this week’s best bets, make sure to check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams Week 9 Odds
- Bet: Rams -7.0
- Odds: -110
If you’re looking to back the Rams this week, DraftKings Sportsbook is the best place to do it. This line has moved to Rams -7.5 at some locations, and the Rams are priced at greater than -110 at others.
The Rams have been arguably the best offensive team in football this season. They rank first in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA, and they rank fifth in points per game. Matthew Stafford has given the team a massive boost at the quarterback position, and Cooper Kupp has blossomed into one of the most dangerous receivers in the league.
The Titans have recorded some monster wins recently — they’ve beaten the Bills, Chiefs and Colts in three straight weeks — but their overall body of work is still largely unimpressive. They rank just 20th in overall DVOA, and they own a Pythagorean Win Expectation of just 4.7-3.3. That means they’ve been one of the luckier teams in the league.
Now, they’re going to have to figure out how to win games without Derrick Henry. He was on pace to rush for more than 2,000 yards in back-to-back seasons, and Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols won’t strike nearly the same fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. It will be on Ryan Tannehill and the passing attack to pick up the slack.
That could be easier said than done vs. the Rams. They already boasted two of the best defenders in the league in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, and they acquired Von Miller before the trade deadline. Miller is still one of the best edge defenders in the league, so their defense figures to improve moving forward.
Seven points is a big number, but there are plenty of reasons to support the Rams.
Pick: Rams -7
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals Week 9 Odds
- Bet: Browns Moneyline
- Odds: +115
This is an interesting matchup between two AFC North rivals coming off disappointing performances. The Browns dropped an ugly game vs. the Steelers, while the Bengals lost to the Jets. The Jets didn’t even have their starting quarterback for that contest, and they lost as 10.5-point favorites.
While that certainly was a bad performance by the Bengals, this team is still held in higher regard than the Browns by the general public. The Bengals have received 70% of the early spread bets, making them one of the most public teams of the week.
The Browns also stand out as extremely undervalued from a DVOA perspective. They rank sixth in DVOA, while the Bengals rank 21st. However, the current spread suggests that these two teams are roughly even on a neutral field. That’s not reflected by the numbers.
Finally, the Browns could benefit from some addition by subtraction in regard to Odell Beckham. It’s not all that intuitive that losing a No. 1 wide receiver would make a quarterback better, but that’s the case with Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has averaged approximately 0.75 fewer interceptions when playing without Beckham, and he’s posted a better completion percentage with more yards per game:
Ultimately, this feels like a nice opportunity to buy-low on the Browns.
You could take the team on the point spread, but I like the idea of grabbing them on the moneyline instead. Unless the spread gets to the key number of three, and the point spread likely won’t play a huge factor in that contest. With that in mind, sacrificing the two points for the potential +115 payout seems like a sharp decision.
Pick: Browns ML
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants Week 9 Odds
- Bet: Under 47.0
- Odds: -115
This number is down to 46.5 across most of the industry, but you can still grab the under on 47.0 at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s a key number in terms of NFL totals. The most common final points tallies are 40, 41, 51, 47 and 44, and games end on one of those five numbers approximately 18% of the time.
That makes getting 47 in this contest between the Raiders and Giants appealing.
Both of these teams are dealing with some absences on offense. The Giants will be without Saquon Barkley for the fourth-straight game, while Sterling Shepard has also been ruled out. Kenny Golladay is expected to return, but there’s no guarantee he’s at 100%.
Meanwhile, the Raiders will have to overcome the absence of Henry Ruggs. He was their best field stretcher, so their offense could lack a vertical element vs. the Giants. Their defense has also been better than most realize this season, ranking 14th in defensive DVOA.
Overall, this game could be a bit lower-scoring than expected, and there has been some sharp activity on the under. The under has received 93% of the total dollars in this contest on just 40% of the bets.
Pick: Under 47.0
