NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There’s no rush in DFS quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% rostered receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my top 10 plays under 10% in DFS for Week 1:
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 1
1. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Allen’s advantage at QB this week with Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson off the main slate is enormous:
His projection and ceiling lap the field, but take special notice of the Smash% and Fail% on the right hand side of the picture above. We define Smash% as the likelihood that the player will help you get a takedown, so most percentages are predictably low. In fact, Stroud is second among QBs and the only other QB more likely to smash than fail (the player hurts your chances of cashing). Yet Allen is nearly four times as likely to smash than fail! Insane!
His low rostership projection is a result of uncertainty surrounding his receiving options and some cheap QB options with rushing upside, but make no mistake about it — Allen could break this slate in a big way, and if he does, he’s carrying at least one of his receiving options to glory with him.
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