Top 10 DFS plays under 10% for Week 11

With teams on bye weeks and fewer games on the slate, DFS rostership becomes more and more concentrated. It is now more important than ever to find those contrarian plays.

Guys with low roster percentages are how to get contrarian on popular players or find leverage off them. For all our FTN Daily DFS rostership projections, head here.

One new feature in our brand-new NFL DFS Optimizer is that you can force the opto to include a set number of players below any roster projections you want. I highly recommend forcing at least one player at sub-10% roster percentage to differentiate yourself from the field. 

Here are my 10 under 10% for Week 11:

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

DraftKings projected roster percentage: 6.5%
FanDuel projected roster percentage: 5.3%

While Dak Prescott will be missing one of his top weapons in Amari Cooper, the Cowboys have more than enough firepower against an abysmal Chiefs defense. With CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup both becoming chalky, Prescott is an easy way to be different and double up on those points. So far this year, the Chiefs are allowing 8.04 yards per attempt, the fifth worst in football. In other words, if Prescott gets the passing volume, he will shred this defense in the game with the highest total on the slate.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

DraftKings projected roster percentage: 6.2%
FanDuel projected roster percentage: 9.2%

The Bills defense has been excellent this season, but they have also had one of the easiest strengths of schedules in all of football. Derrick Henry carved them up for 143-and-3 on the ground, and Jonathan Taylor has been arguably the best back in football the last four weeks. Taylor is seeing increased volume with a season-high 21 carries last week and runs behind one of the most dominant lines in football. Playing studs with slate-breaking ceilings at low rostership, despite bad matchups, is something I am always drawn to. 

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

DraftKings projected roster percentage: 2.9%
FanDuel projected roster percentage: 3%

The field may be looking at Ezekiel Elliott’s snaps and seeing that he is playing less the last two weeks, but that is missing the context of back-to-back blowouts involving the Cowboys. This is the highest total of the slate and Elliott takes on a Chiefs defense that both gets carved up on the ground and through the air to running backs. He has as much touchdown equity as any player in this game and should not be a sub-5% player.

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints

DraftKings projected roster percentage: 6.8%
FanDuel projected roster percentage: 3.7%

Running back rostership is very concentrated this week, leaving a price-and-ownership value in Mark Ingram going overlooked. Ingram played 69% of the snaps last week, saw 14 carries and had 7 targets. Now he takes on an Eagles team that has more carries against them than any other in football and funnel targets underneath to running backs allowing 8.1 targets and 6.8 receptions per game.

Jeffery Wilson, RB, San Francisco 49ers

DraftKings projected roster percentage: 4.2%
FanDuel projected roster percentage: 0.7%

Elijah Mitchell is almost certainly going to miss this game, which means we have a value in Jeffery Wilson, but the field seems perfectly content to ignore Wilson’s upside. The 49ers playing the Jacksonville Jaguars and are seven-point road favorites. This year in games they have won, the 49ers have not had more than 30 pass attempts in a single game. Last week, the 49ers ran the ball 44 times, 37 from running backs. Mitchel had 27 targets and is gone, while Trey Sermon remains in the doghouse, meaning Wilson could see 20 plus touches Sunday. The 49ers run the ball 59.8% when leading this season, the third-highest rate in football.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

DraftKings projected roster percentage: 4.2%
FanDuel projected roster percentage: 9%

The Packers defense has been excellent of late, shutting down Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray in their last three games. Despite missing All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander, the Packers secondary has improved week in and week out. Those numbers are why people are overlooking Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has dominated in his career at home averaging 96.5 yards per game. Last week against a Chargers team that does not allow big plays finished with 143 yards. There is no matchup that Jefferson cannot overcome.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Buffalo Bills

DraftKings projected roster percentage: 3.7%
FanDuel projected roster percentage: 6.1%

I almost included Josh Allen in this space, but I held off as he is projected just under 10% on DraftKings, but over 10% on FanDuel. The Colts are a pass-funnel defense that has allowed 82.1% of touchdowns against them through the air. While Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley will be popular, Emmanuel Sanders will be the forgotten man. He still leads the team in end-zone targets and is second with 31% of the air yards the last four weeks. He has been bad of late and is the forgotten man, but this is a huge opportunity for him to bounce back this week. 

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens

DraftKings projected roster percentage: 3.1%
FanDuel projected roster percentage: 3.2%

Rashod Bateman has six or more targets in every game this season with back-to-back games of eight targets. He has gone for 60 or more yards in three straight games, and the Ravens receiving core is beat up. There will be no Myles Boykin in this game, while both Devin Duvernay and Marquise Brown are listed as questionable. Historically, Brown has not been nearly as efficient when he is on the injury report and if Bateman gets a slight usage bump, he has 100-plus-yard-and-a-touchdown upside. An important note: Lamar Jackson did get added to the injury report Saturday, so his status is important to monitor.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

DraftKings projected roster percentage: 2.2%
FanDuel projected roster percentage: 3.6%

DeVonta Smith was dominant last week as he scored two touchdowns. He is commanding 28.5% of his team’s targets the last four weeks, the passing volume of the offense simply has not been there. Jalen Hurts has over 24 pass attempts in just one of his last four games. However, he is likely going to have to throw the ball more, as running on the Saints simply won’t work. The Saints are the top-ranked run defense per DVOA, so if Hurts has to throw more, Smith’s volume could explode. People looking at his raw target numbers are missing a tremendous opportunity. If Hurts has to throw the ball 35-plus times in this one, Smith should be looking at double-digit targets. 

Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys

DraftKings projected roster percentage: 6.2%
FanDuel projected roster percentage: 4.7 %

Here’s another Cowboy leverage player that I want exposure to. With Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb being chalk, Dalton Schultz — who has shown a massive ceiling — is a nice pivot. He will also give you a unique roster construction as chalk tight ends are either pay-up or pay-down options this week.