Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 14 of the NFL season brings us an uninspiring matchup with the New England Patriots visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers. This game carries a six-point spread but a bottom-barrel projected total of 30 points. The Steelers (7-5) are very much in the playoff race but cannot afford a home loss to a Patriots team (2-10) that has the worst record in the AFC.
Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets for Thursday night. You can find all our Week 14 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for this Thursday night matchup.
Week 14 Player Prop
Hunter Henry Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
(-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)
It is very difficult to back a player to go over his projected receiving yardage prop when he has not performed well in recent weeks. I am eschewing that conventional wisdom and taking Hunter Henry over 21.5 receiving yards in a frigid game at Pittsburgh.
While Henry has performed poorly, he has been a casualty of the poor overall New England offensive scheme. The Patriots rank 28th overall in offensive DVOA, including 29th in pass defense DVOA. Henry has still seen four or more targets in three straight games and has six games this season with five or more targets. In a limited Patriots offense, now operating without running back Rhamondre Stevenson, Henry is still one of their best offensive weapons.
Pittsburgh has been very strong at limiting opposing tight ends, ranking fourth in DVOA to the position. However, they allow the 20th-most yards per game to the position (52.7), which gives Henry a good chance to still eclipse this massively low yardage number.
New England’s offense has become even more conservative with backup quarterback Bailey Zappe under center, which should limit big passing attempts to wide receivers down the sidelines. Zappe feels most comfortable in the short to intermediate area of the field, and Henry often operates as a slot wide receiver in multiple tight end packages with Mike Gesicki and Pharaoh Brown. That’s precisely where this Steelers defense is weak, ranking second worst in DVOA to opposing WR3s this season.
We project Henry for 31.3 receiving yards, equating to a 6% edge and 59.2% win probability. This is a low-excitement Thursday matchup, so look for value with Henry on his over receiving yardage number.
