NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Eagles have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- A passing game script is implied by the Eagles being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- With a high 86.8% Route% (98th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert rates as one of the TEs with the most usage in the league.
- In this game, Dallas Goedert is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 93rd percentile among TEs with 6.0 targets.
Cons
- The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 28.60 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Cowboys, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.6 per game) this year.
- Dallas Goedert’s 44.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 58.0 rate.
- Dallas Goedert’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 80.2% to 73.3%.
- Dallas Goedert’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 7.63 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 10.42 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
