Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).

Pros

The Eagles have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
A passing game script is implied by the Eagles being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With a high 86.8% Route% (98th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert rates as one of the TEs with the most usage in the league.
In this game, Dallas Goedert is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 93rd percentile among TEs with 6.0 targets.

Cons

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 28.60 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Cowboys, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.6 per game) this year.
Dallas Goedert’s 44.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 58.0 rate.
Dallas Goedert’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 80.2% to 73.3%.
Dallas Goedert’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 7.63 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 10.42 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards