Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Is there a better day to bet on football than Thanksgiving? While it’s a time to enjoy everything you’re thankful for in life, we also happen to have three uninterrupted football games in a row.
In this article, I’m going to take you through my thoughts on every game and provide you with the bets I’ve already placed.
Lions vs. Bills – The Appetizer
The Lions are coming into this game with their best form of the season, pulling off three straight wins against the Giants, Bears and Packers. They scored 30+ points in back-to-back games, but the biggest worry is their lack of defense on the other side of the ball. While those three bottom-half offenses weren’t able to punish them, I expect that to changed against the top-ranked Bills offense. After a tough loss to the Vikings, the Bills looked like themselves last week, taking care of the goodness against the Browns.
While the props I want aren’t quite out yet, I wanted to highlight D’Andre Swift and why I like his unders. We all remember the explosive plays from last season, but lately he has been downgraded to essentially there third-down back, being mostly replaced by Jamaal Williams between the tackles. After a 15-44 performance against the Eagles to start the season, Swift hasn’t seen more than seven carries all year. While he has dealt with injuries, the real problem is that he has been extremely inefficient. Because of his ability to break off long rushes, I would love to take the attempts number at 7.5 if that was an option, but yards will also be good assuming it’s in the low 30s.
Bet: D’Andre Swift unders (TBD)
Giants vs. Cowboys – The Main Course
While we don’t normally see divisional spreads at more than 10 points, the public is loving the good-old Cowboys against the Giants this week. It seems like the public has all come together to agree that the Giants aren’t as talented as their record suggests, and last week’s dominant Cowboys win has them at peak popularity right now. The Giants will also be without four separate offensive lineman who have all started a game this season, and that’s concerning against the scariest pass rush in the league.
I’ve got to take Micah Parsons to sack Daniel Jones. While you could play it safe, I’m going to take 2+ Sacks & Cowboys moneyline at +400 on DraftKings. While I’m normally more of a stats guy, I really don’t think there is a defensive player who rises to the bright lights more than Parsons. He has 10 sacks this season (3rd) and 2+ sacks in two of his last four games. The Giants have a weak offensive line, and I don’t think they will be able to slow down the Cowboys pass rush.
Bet: Micah Parsons 2+ sacks + Cowboys ML (+400)
Patriots vs. Vikings – The Dessert
Finally, let’s talk about the best game of the slate. We all watched the Vikings triumph against the Bills, but then they were absolutely destroyed by the Cowboys last week. The Patriots are going to attempt to beat Kirk a similar way, pressure, pressure, pressure. Mac Jones on the other side hasn’t been great, but he’s been the check-down god so far this season. That’s the reason I love Rhamondre Stevenson’s over 3.5 receptions (-140) in this game. Although I love Damien Harris as a complementary back, he won’t eat into Stevenson’s targets, just his carries. Last week, Stevenson saw 25 routes, while Harris only saw six. I’m expecting a similar game plan where they protect the rock and let their defense do most of the work. In a close game, I have Stevenson getting 6+ targets.
Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson over 3.5 receptions (-140)
