Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
This week we have a very important Thursday night matchup with plenty of playoff implications between the Jaguars and Jets. One of the first things that jumps of the page is the expected weather, with cold temperatures, wind and plenty of rain seeming to be the consensus prediction. The Jets are currently two-point favorites (it had been a pick ‘em), which surely contributes to the very low 37 game total. The Jags are currently coming in with some momentum, while the Jets are looking to get back into form (feel better, Mike White!).
One of the biggest challenges for the Jaguars is going to be moving the ball against a very well-rounded Jets defense. This defense currently ranks sixth in DVOA vs the pass, with a very strong corner duo and an eighth-ranked pressure rate. While run defense isn’t their specialty, they rank middle of the pack in DVOA, and should be able to hold their own. They rank No. 1 vs. outside receivers and middle of the pack vs. the slot and tight ends. The good news for the Jaguars is they faced an incredibly tough opponent in the Cowboys last week, and despite a rocky start, looked fine. We know their offense has the capability, it’s just about good matchups and mostly likely avoiding Sauce Gardner on the outside.
Here is my favorite bet from Thursday’s game. It’s a parlay.
Christian Kirk Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
Jaguars/Jets Under 47.5
-120, DraftKings Sportsbook
The Jaguars are a pass funnel team, due to a strong defensive line and a weaker pass defense. This should be tough for the Jets to take advantage of for two reasons. First, Zach Wilson is very bad. Second, Zach Wilson is very bad, and he’s going to be playing in terrible conditions. While Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter will get their fair share of carries on the ground, neither been incredibly impressive to me, I’m expecting the Jets to struggle to maintain drives. Wilson has been known to hit a deep ball every once in a while, but the weather conditions seem to make that less likely. I also do think there is a good chance we could see some turnovers in this one.
Like I mentioned earlier, it’s really hard to target the Jets on the outside, and I think that opens up the best value in this game. Rather than attacking Sauce Gardner or D.J. Reed on the outside, teams are opting to target Michael Carter in the slot, and we saw a perfect example of this last week. The Lions main outside receiver DJ Chark, coming off back-to-back games of 90-plus yards, only had 1 catch for 18 yards, while Amon Ra-St. Brown caught 7 balls for 74 yards on 10 targets. Christian Kirk has run 76% of his routes from the slot this season, while Zay Jones has only run 32%. I think this presents clear value for Kirk. Overall, I’m expecting a very defense-oriented game, but just like St. Brown last week, I think Kirk will carve out a role for himself over the middle.
