The worst picks in every round - Fantasy Football 2021

Tyler Loechner

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The best feeling after your fantasy football draft is to look at every player on your roster and be confident you made the right choice. The worst is to look at the draft board and realize you coulda, shoulda, woulda waited before pulling the trigger.

This article will review the worst picks in each round for your fantasy football draft strategy in 2021. We’ll focus on Rounds 1-9, since when you get to the double-digit rounds, you’re often taking low-percentage players anyway.

Make sure you don’t reach on these players when you’re on the clock.

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First round, worst pick: Aaron Jones, RB

There are no bad players going in the first round of fantasy football draft, obviously. But Aaron Jones carries too many red flags for my liking as the No. 9 overall pick.

For starters, he’s not Green Bay’s goal-line option. That mantle belongs to Davante Adams. Additionally, the rising stock of A.J. Dillion — who has risen into Round 8 — should naturally come at the expense of Jones’ ADP, but it hasn’t. We have Dillon projected for 163 attempts to Jones’ 192.

There are bell cows in more secure roles going behind Jones, as well a Tier 1 WR, and that just shouldn’t be the case.

Second round, worst pick: Nick Chubb, RB

Nick Chubb, the league’s best rusher, is just too costly near the top of Round 2 considering he remains in a committee and has no receiving upside to speak of.

The lack of usage in the passing game is really the most concerning. Chubb had just 16 receptions last season. All the other RBs going in Round 2 (Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Clyde Edwards-Helaire) all have more receiving upside.

Third round, worst pick: Patrick Mahomes, QB

Patrick Mahomes is certainly the No. 1 QB in fantasy, but he should not be coming off boards two (or more) full rounds before Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott.

If Mahomes were going in the fourth round, it would still give me some pause knowing those players would still be around in the fifth, but at least that would be more acceptable.

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Fourth round, worst pick: Ja’Marr Chase, WR

Ja’Marr Chase’s ADP was concerning before his struggles in camp and in preseason games. Everyone is high on the Bengals offense with so many talented, young players, but it has resulted in clear inflation.

There is nothing good about Chase coming out of camp. The Athletic has reported that Chase may lose snaps to Auden Tate. This is a top-50 pick we’re talking about. No thanks.

Fifth round, worst pick: Jerry Jeudy, WR

The FTN fantasy football projections have Jerry Jeudy scoring the 50th-most fantasy points among all WRs in PPR leagues this year.

But he’s the 29th WR coming off draft boards.

This ADP suggests there’s a lot of faith that Jeudy, who is famous for crisp route running and creating separation, will not continue to struggle from poor QB play in Denver. The team still does not know who it’s starter will be, but we do know that whoever it is, it will be a lackluster option.

There’s also the looming return of Courtland Sutton, who missed almost all of last season and will contend with WR1 duties in Denver with Jeudy.

Sixth round, worst pick: Mike Davis, RB

I get the sense people have convinced themselves that Round 6 is where it’s “OK” to take Mike Davis. Nobody really wants to draft him, but “that’s just so much value!” inherently creeps into minds around this point of drafts.

Allow me to enlighten you: Davis is not a good pick as your RB2 in Round 6. And if you’re thinking of taking him as your flex player here, do yourself a favor and do not do that thing.

Davis’ “value” last season was a short-lived mirage. He was a fantasy RB1 or RB2 in each of the first five games of the season. He then reached that mark only twice in his next nine games.

Seventh round, worst pick: Damien Harris, RB

New England’s backfield is low-key stacked for the 2021 season, and while Damien Harris is the presumed lead back, there’s very little evidence to suggest he has true breakout potential.

For starters, Cam Newton is looking more and more likely to be New England’s starting QB, at least for the first part of the season. On the one hand, this helps Harris, as New England will be more run-centric. On the other hand, this hurts Harris, as Newton led all QBs (by far) with 22 goal-line attempts last season. Newton is their gaol-line RB, plain and simple.

Add in the fact that Sony Michel looks better than ever, the arrival of preseason hero Rhamondre Stevenson, and the always-present James White, and this remains a muddied backfield. It’s a dart I wouldn’t be willing to throw in Round 7.

Eighth round, worst pick: Mecole Hardman, WR

The world of fantasy football players really wants Mecole Hardman to happen. I do, too. Hardman certainly has a few things working in his favor: He’s a Year 3 breakout candidate, he’s listed as the WR2 in Kansas City, he’s the ideal player in a Patrick Mahomes offense, having proven his big-play ability on numerous occasions.

But there are also lingering concerns, chief among them being the question: How valuable is the WR2 role in Kansas City?

With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce being so dominant, so far the answer has been “not very valuable.” Hardman has played 11 of 36 games with at least 40 snaps. His stats were only mildly better in those games, according to our NFL Splits tool:

Hardman possesses game-breaking single-week upside, which is his primary draw, but the path to every-week startability remains thin. Also, there are other WRs that will also have big spike weeks you can get several rounds later.

I think this price is close, but it’s just one round too early. You can get Marquise Brown a round later.

Ninth round, worst pick: Tyler Higbee, TE

Higbee is coming off draft boards in the middle of Round 9 as the TE8. He’s being drafted ahead of Logan Thomas, Noah Fant, Robert Tonyan, Irv Smith and Mike Gesicki — all of whom I’d rather have.

Higbee is projected to be the No. 12 TE in our fantasy football projections, and he’s also the consensus No. 12 TE in our fantasy football rankings.

Higbee as a fringe TE1 is fine — no Gerald Everett in Los Angeles helps his case — but he should still be going behind all of the players listed above. He’s simply being drafted a round or two too early.