NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
In late September, I took an early look at the relationship between DVOA and fantasy football value. We know DVOA is useful for all forms of football analysis — including fantasy — but where can we use it the most?
Today, we’re revisiting the topic now that we have a full season of data at our disposal.
I’m once again using the Fantasy Wins Added metric, combined with DVOA, to measure the relationship.
The Results (tl;dr Version)
DVOA certainly tells us something about fantasy performance. Even better, DVOA helps us identify great fantasy football matchups.
The Results (Longer Version)
We examined QB, RB, WR and TE fantasy performance compared to their DVOA grades for the 2023 NFL season.
We also examined team defense vs. position to see how DVOA can be used to find juicy fantasy matchups.
Quarterback
- Pass DVOA grade to QB Fantasy Wins Added correlation: 0.60
- Grade: Moderate correlation
I’m using Cohen’s (1988) conventions for the “large” designation. After three weeks of data, the relationship between passing DVOA and fantasy wins added was 0.68, so that held up throughout the entire season.
It’s not perfectly correlated, but there’s definitely a strong relationship here.
Running Back (Rushing)
- Rush DVOA grade to RB Fantasy Wins Added correlation: 0.25
- Grade: Medium correlation
The sample for this data was the top 50 RBs in terms of fantasy wins added.
There’s definitely some correlation here, but it’s not very strong. After three weeks of data, it looked like this relationship would be large, but that didn’t hold up.
For example, Rachaad White and Jahmyr Gibbs both had 0.74 fantasy wins added this year. But White had -10% rush DVOA, while Gibbs was 17.4%
Running Back (Receiving)
- Receiving DVOA grade to RB Fantasy Wins Added correlation: 0.08
- Grade: Low correlation
When we did this study after just three weeks, this was the weakest relationship of them all.
It got even weaker now that we have a full season of data. For example, Kyren Williams was the second-most valuable fantasy RB last season, but he was -14.2% in receiving DVOA. So a running back’s receiving DVOA doesn’t tell us much about his fantasy value.
However, it can definitely tell us which players might earn more playing time in the valuable receiving roles moving forward.
For example, prior to the season, in the FTN Fantasy DVOA Almanac, I noted that Devin Singletary was miles ahead of Dameon Pierce in rushing and receiving DVOA and that Singletary was a threat to win the job. That’s exactly what happened.
Wide Receiver
- Receiving DVOA grade to WR Fantasy Wins Added correlation: 0.63
- Grade: Medium to Large correlation
This relationship grew even stronger now that we have a full season of data. (Our sample here was the top 70 WRs in fantasy value last year.)
There are, of course, outliers, such as Khalil Shakir, who finished with the best receiving DVOA of the group (55%) but a negative fantasy wins added (-1.03), but for the most part, this is a strong correlation.
Even in cases like Shakir, the DVOA data is still telling us something very, very useful for fantasy. Shakir’s late-season breakout would have been no surprise at all to DVOA analysts. He was good all along! He just needed more playing time for it to reflect in the fantasy world.
Tight End
- Receiving DVOA grade to TE Fantasy Wins Added correlation: 0.34
- Grade: Medium correlation
Our sample here was the top 30 TEs in fantasy value last year.
There’s correlation, but it’s not as strong as the WR position.
Using DVOA in Fantasy Football
If we’re going the descriptive route, DVOA correlates moderately with fantasy value. That’s not DVOA’s job, though, so using DVOA as a reason for why someone is good at fantasy football isn’t useful.
What this study makes clear is that more research is needed to identify how to use DVOA to identify potential breakout players, such as Khalil Shakir down the stretch.
(One player to keep an eye on: Dontayvion Wicks, who finished with 27.7% receiving DVOA despite not being on the fantasy radar all year.)
Perhaps I’ll turn this into a series in which we dive deeper into looking at the best ways to use DVOA for fantasy football.
