The Relationship Between DVOA and Fantasy Football Value

I was tasked with writing something DVOA-related for FTN here, so I thought I’d start off with something, well, simple.

What’s the relationship between DVOA and fantasy football value?

Using the revolutionary Fantasy Wins Added metric — combined with the even more revolutionary DVOA metric — we can finally answer that question in the best way possible.

For the record, I plan to revisit this topic at the end of the season. We only have three weeks of data for the 2023 season, so we’ll see if these early-season trends hold.

The Hypothesis

I had a few hypotheses:

• The better the DVOA, the better the fantasy value.
• RB receiving DVOA would have stronger correlation with RB fantasy value than rushing DVOA

The Results (tl;dr version)

Oh, heck yeah. DVOA definitely (apparently) tells us something about fantasy performance. Even better, DVOA helps us identify great fantasy football matchups. 

The Results (longer version)

We examined QB, RB, WR and TE fantasy performance compared to their DVOA ratings through the first three weeks of the 2023 NFL season. 

We also examined team defense vs. position to see how DVOA can be used to find juicy fantasy matchups.

Quarterback

• Pass DVOA to QB Fantasy Wins Added correlation: 0.68
• Grade: Large correlation

(I’m using Cohen’s [1988] conventions for the “large” designation. Those guidelines are more for social sciences, but given this is a first pass at this research, I wanted to use some basic benchmarks. Also, we only have three weeks of data so far. But the “strong” correlation here certainly indicates some more meaningful research is needed — once we have a larger sample size — to determine statistical significance.)

Running Back (Rushing)

• Rush DVOA to RB Fantasy Wins Added correlation: 0.53
• Grade: Large correlation

Running Back (Receiving)

• Receiving DVOA to RB Fantasy Wins Added correlation: 0.35
• Grade: Medium correlation

Wide Receiver

• Receiving DVOA to WR Fantasy Wins Added correlation: 0.45
• Grade: Medium to Large correlation

Tight End

• Receiving DVOA to TE Fantasy Wins Added correlation: 0.41
• Grade: Medium correlation

Using DVOA to Identify Good Fantasy Football Matchups

We also examined whether the Team Defense DVOA metrics could tell us anything meaningful about fantasy football matchups.

It appears the answer is yes.

Total Team Defense DVOA

• Team D DVOA vs. Fantasy Wins Allowed Per Snap correlation: 0.61
• Grade: Large correlation

Pass Defense DVOA

• Pass D DVOA vs. QB Fantasy Wins Allowed Per Snap correlation: 0.58
• Grade: Large correlation

Rush Defense DVOA

• Rush D DVOA vs. RB Fantasy Wins Allowed Per Snap correlation: 0.57
• Grade: Large correlation

Receiving Defense DVOA (WRs)

• Pass D DVOA vs. WR Fantasy Wins Allowed Per Snap correlation: 0.34
• Grade: Medium correlation

Receiving Defense DVOA (TEs)

• Pass D DVOA vs. TE Fantasy Wins Allowed Per Snap correlation: 0.33
• Grade: Medium correlation

Part 2 of DVOA vs. Fantasy Football

This initial foray into DVOA vs. fantasy football makes it clear that a deeper dive is warranted. Stay tuned to FTN Fantasy after the season as we have tens of thousands more data points to slice and dice with. We’ll go beyond basic correlation to determine if (and to what extent) there’s statistical significance here.

We’re open to other ideas on this relationship too. Find me on Twitter (X?) @LoechnerNFL.