The Read Option, Week 7: Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints game for Week 7.

Week 7 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints

N0 -1, O/U 40
Pace: JAC: 26.9 sec/snap (13th), NO: 25.1 sec/snap (5th)

FTN Data Breakdown

• Travis Etienne has a 12% target share this season.
• His target share in 2022 was just 7%.
• He is seeing a carry or a target on 35.2% of snaps, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
• Since Week 4, Alvin Kamara leads all running backs in targets (25).
• The Jaguars are allowing the fourth-most receptions (6.5) and fifth-most targets (7.7) per game to opposing running backs.
• Taysom Hill ran a route on a career-high 63% of dropbacks in Week 6.

Quarterback

Toward the end of last week’s game, Trevor Lawrence hurt his knee. It looks like he’ll be good to go Thursday, but it is very fair to wonder if he is 100%, especially on a short week. While he certainly hasn’t played poorly this season, Lawrence has yet to reach 20 fantasy points in a game. His seven pass attempts inside the 10-yard line are tied for the 27th among quarterbacks, and he’s failed to reach 250 passing yards in four of six contests. Lawrence is averaging 0.40 fantasy points per dropback (20th) and is likely less than 100% facing a tough Saints defense that is surrendering the second-lowest completion rate (55.9%) and fifth-lowest yards per pass attempt (5.9) in the league. Lawrence has provided us with at least 20 rushing yards in four of six games, but if he isn’t fully healthy, the rushing yards could disappear. If you have a solid backup option this week, I wouldn’t be opposed to playing him over Lawrence. 

Running Back

Travis Etienne leads the entire NFL with 134 touches. He is averaging a healthy 22.3 touches per game this season, sporting a 79% snap share and handling 63% of Jacksonville’s team rushing attempts. He has seen a carry or a target on 35.1% of his snaps, the sixth-highest rate among all running backs and even on a short week, should be in line for a strong workload again, especially with Lawrence banged up. The uptick in pass-catching production has been a welcomed sight, as Etienne is sporting a 12% target share this season. In 2022, that number was at just seven percent. He draws a tough matchup this week, facing a Saints defense that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a running back this season, while only the Lions are surrendering more fantasy points per game to enemy backfields (13.7). Etienne is still a clear top-12 running back but his upside may not be as high if Lawrence is limited or out entirely. 

Wide Receiver

Despite having the top matchup for wideouts last week, Calvin Ridley finished the day with just four catches for 30 yards. He was targeted eight times but has now been held under 41 receiving yards in four of six games this season. Christian Kirk, meanwhile, caught 3-of-6 targets for 46 yards and a touchdown, as he continues to be the most consistent wideout from Jacksonville.

In fact, since Week 2, Kirk has run a route on 91% of the team’s dropbacks, while sporting a 21% target share and 23% target per route run rate. Ridley, meanwhile, has run a route on 88% of dropbacks during that span, while seeing 19% of the targets and being targeted on 17% of his routes. Kirk is the WR13 in fantasy during that stretch, while Ridley is the WR42. We may need to rank Kirk ahead of Ridley for now, despite how much upside the former Falcons wideout has. But especially with Zay Jones sidelined, Kirk’s role is so solidified. And he’s been very solid against man coverage since the start of last season, sporting a healthy 27.8% target share against the defense since last year. The Saints, meanwhile, are playing man defense 39% of the time so far this season, a top-seven rate in the NFL. They have also been more vulnerable to the slot, which is where Kirk is lining up 70.6% of the time. New Orleans is allowing almost nine targets per game to opposing pass-catchers from the slot this season, the third-most in football. 

Ridley, meanwhile, is posting a 21.5% target share against man coverage this year but has also had some issues with press man coverage, which the Saints are very comfortable deploying. And with Marshon Lattimore on the outside, New Orleans has done a good job against opposing top wideouts, limiting No. 1 wide receivers to just 52.0 receiving yards per game, the fourth fewest in the league. So far this season, Lattimore has shadowed Mike Evans and DeAndre Hopkins and could follow Ridley for this contest. You aren’t benching him (or Kirk), especially with six teams on bye, but I am tempering expectations for Ridley Thursday.

JAC WRs since Week 2

Tight End

Once again, no touchdown from Evan Engram but one of the highest floors in all of fantasy. He caught all seven of his targets for 41 yards last week, giving him at least five catches for 40-plus yards in all but one game this season. Engram has now finished as a top-seven fantasy tight end in all but one week this year, while ranking fourth among tight ends in routes (210), third in target share (21%), third in targets (42) and first in receptions (36). He’s yet to see a target inside the 10-yard line this year but given how strong his overall usage is, the touchdowns are right around the corner. 

Quarterback

Derek Carr is coming off a game where he attempted 50 passes, throwing for 353 yards, one touchdown and one interception. His struggles in the red zone continue to hold both him and this Saints offense back, as Carr has now completed just 3-of-11 passes inside the 10-yard line this season, while his 44% completion rate from the red zone ranks outside the top-30 quarterbacks in the league. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has been a league average red zone defense this season, though they have allowed three quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards against them so far. The matchup is solid for Carr, though he still settles in as nothing more than a mid-range QB2 in fantasy.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara continues to touch the football as much as anyone in football. He had 26 touches for around 100 scrimmage yards on Sunday and since Week 4, Kamara leads all running backs in targets (25) and receptions (23), while his 52 rushing attempts are sixth. He is averaging an insane 25 touches per game, while seeing either a carry or target on over 40% of his snaps, one of the highest rates in the league. The efficiency hasn’t quite been there, as Kamara is averaging just 3.8 yards per touch, while only forcing three missed tackles and failing to record an explosive run. The Saints could get Jamaal Williams back this week, which could potentially cut into Kamara’s workload a bit, though he should still be in line for 20-22 regardless. This is a solid matchup, as Jacksonville is coughing up the fourth-most receptions (6.5) and fifth-most targets (7.7) per game to opposing running backs. 

Wide Receiver

After posting just 16 receiving yards in Weeks 4-5, Chris Olave bounced back last week, hauling in 7-of-10 targets for 96 yards. It appeared as if there was more of a concentrated effort to get Olave the football, as he lined up out of the slot a season-high 29 times. He’s still going to see a ton of deep looks, as Olave’s 18 deep targets are still the most in the league. And Carr has thrown the football 20-plus yards 19.5% of the time this season, the highest rate in the NFL. So there are going to be plenty of connections on deep shots this year, but if the Saints can continue to get Olave more consistent intermediate targets in between, he’ll return to posting borderline top-12 numbers. This week, he’ll face a Jacksonville secondary that has allowed a ton of production to opposing wideouts. They are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position, while three wideouts have reached 100 yards against them. 

Michael Thomas, meanwhile, remains a low-ceiling flex/low-end WR3. He is averaging a very solid 7.8 targets and 5.1 receptions per game but has yet to find the end zone and is also averaging under 55 yards per contest. You are pretty much guaranteed to get 4-6 catches and 40-50 yards from Thomas each week, but don’t expect to win your matchup because of him. The Jaguars are coughing up almost nine yards per target to opposing wide receivers this season. Finally, Rashid Shaheed hauled in a 50-yard touchdown last week and has recorded at least one catch of 25-plus yards in all but two games this season. With how often Carr is throwing deep, Shaheed, who is running a route on 73% of his dropbacks, will remain a boom/bust flex play in deep formats. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have allowed 431 yards on passes 20-plus air yards, the fourth-most in the league.

Tight End

With Juwan Johnson sidelined, Taysom Hill set career-highs in targets (8), receptions (7) and route participation (63%). It probably isn’t wise to chase this production, especially since the Saints threw the ball over 50 times but if Johnson can’t return this week, Hill could once again be on the radar, mainly because there are so many teams on bye. Opposing tight ends are averaging 8.8 targets (second-most), 60.7 receiving yards (fifth-most) and 13.2 fantasy points per game (10th-most) to opposing tight ends this season.