The Read Option, Week 2: Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles game for Week 2.

Week 2 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -7, O/U 48.5
Pace: MIN: 26.6 sec/snap (16th), PHI: 23.6 sec/snap (6th)

FTN Data Breakdown

• A.J. Brown saw 58.7% of the Eagles’ air yards in Week 1, the fifth-highest mark in the league.
• Jordan Addison played 100% of Minnesota’s snaps in 11 personnel.
• The Vikings used 11 personnel 56% of the time.
• Kenneth Gainwell played 62% of the snaps and handled 18-of-22 RB touches for Philadelphia.
• The Vikings blitzed over 47% of the time on Sunday in their first game with Brian Flores as the defensive coordinator.
• Minnesota sported the league’s 9th-lowest blitz rate in 2022 (18.9%).
• A.J. Brown saw a 32.3% target share against the blitz last season, the seventh-highest rate in football.

Quarterback

After he averaged a career-high 38 pass attempts per game last season, Kirk Cousins dropped back to pass 47 times in Week 1 of the 2023 campaign. He completed 33-of-44 passes for 344 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The Vikings posted a gaudy 73% pass rate, as the rushing attack left plenty to be desired. Volume should remain on Cousins’ side, which can help make up for the lack of rushing production at times. That should keep Cousins on the QB1/QB2 border line but there is just one problem regarding his Week 2 matchup.

It is in Philadelphia. In prime time.

Some narratives are silly. Some have legitimacy. I’m not sure where this one lands, but for whatever reason, Cousins has struggled in prime time, including last year on a Monday night against this very Eagles defense. In that game, Cousins completed 27-of-46 passes for 221 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. And since the start of the 2021 campaign, Cousins has played in six prime time contests. In those games, Cousins is averaging 201 passing yards and 15 fantasy points. Philadelphia’s defense didn’t look as sharp this past weekend, allowing Mac Jones to throw for 316 yards and three touchdowns, finishing as the QB2 on the week. Still, I believe it is an overall tough matchup, as the Eagles surrendered just 13.1 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers last season, the second fewest in the league. Given all of these variables, Cousins is in the QB2 range for me, and not a set it and forget it top-12 option.

Running Back

The good news? Alexander Mattison dominated the work for the Vikings last week.

The bad news? He didn’t prove that trend should continue. 

Mattison played 73.4% of the snaps Sunday, though he wasn’t very efficient. He rushed for just 34 yards on 11 carries, though he did save his day with three receptions and a touchdown through the air. You’ll take 13.4 PPR points from Mattison, who is now averaging 20 PPR points per game in contests without Dalvin Cook since the start of the 2020 season. Mattison handled 14 of the 18 running back touches for the Vikings, while playing all three snaps at the goal line and all six short-yardage snaps throughout the game. If the efficiency doesn’t improve, it is possible Ty Chandler starts to get more work but for the time being, Mattison seems to have one of the more fantasy friendly roles. I’m not sure if I’d expect incredible efficiency this week either, however, as Mattison faces a tough Eagles run defense that held the New England running backs to just 54 scoreless rushing yards on 19 carries last week. This run defense is good but especially when defensive tackle Jordan Davis is on the field, The Eagles did allow 11 receptions to the Patriots running backs last week but that feels like more of an indication of how New England’s offense runs than what Philadelphia’s defense allows. Mattison remains a volume-based RB2.

Wide Receiver

It was overlooked because of how incredible he is, but Justin Jefferson quietly caught nine passes for 150 yards. He was targeted 12 times for a 27.2% target share. Jefferson does not leave your lineup at any time, and even when he’s on a bye week I struggle to take him out of my lineup. However, this matchup really limited Jefferson last season. He caught just 6-of-12 targets for 48 yards, as the Eagles had Darius Slay shadow him on about 40% of his routes in that game. Jefferson caught just one-of-six targets for seven yards when shadowed by Slay, while the Eagles, who called Cover-4 at the third-highest rate in the league last year (24.6%), ran it plenty against the Vikings. Again, you are obviously starting him, but this could be more of a floor game for Jefferson, which is likely only 80-90 yards with a chance at a touchdown.

Jordan Addison remains behind K.J. Osborn on the depth chart, but it didn’t stop him from delivering in his NFL debut. Playing 56% of the snaps Sunday, Addison caught four passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. Addison was on the field for every snap when Minnesota was in 11 personnel, which they did almost 60% of the time. Last year, the Vikings ran 11 personnel 74% of the time, so expect more three-wide sets going forward from this offense, which means more snaps for Addison. The rookie wideout operated out of the slot about 35% of the time against Tampa Bay, while Osborn lined up inside about 47% of the time. If Slay follows Jefferson for much of this game, it would give a boost to the matchups for Addison and Osborn, especially if Philadelphia’s No. 2 defensive back James Bradberry (concussion) can’t play. The slot, however, has been the best avenue for success against this Eagles defense. In 2022, Philadelphia surrendered the most targets (8.3), second-most receptions (5.5), second-most receiving yards (68.4) and second-most fantasy points per game (16.3) to opposing slot wideouts in 2022. Osborn still likely plays more snaps than Addison, but it feels like a matter of time before the rookie is the WR2 in Minnesota. Consider him a risky WR3/flex play.

Tight End

It wasn’t pretty, but T.J. Hockenson did catch eight passes in Week 1 for a rather uninspiring 35 yards. He was targeted nine times and dating back to his Vikings debut in Week 9 of last season, Hockenson has now seen 8-plus targets in eight of his 11 regular season games. Since joining the Vikings, Hockenson is sporting a target share north of 22% and as we pointed out last week, his overall usage was just way better than during his time in Detroit. With the Lions in Weeks 1-8, Hockenson averaged just 3.7 receptions, 5.8 targets, 56.4 receiving yards and 11.9 fantasy points per game. And that production was absolutely carried by an absurd eight-catch, 179-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 4. His role in the Lions offense wasn’t as high as you’d might like, as Hockenson posted a 19.4% target per route run rate during his first seven games, while also sporting a modest 17.8% target share.  From weeks 9 to 18, Hockenson averaged 8.2 targets, 6.0 receptions, 52 receiving yards and 13 fantasy points per game. He trailed only Travis Kelce in receptions, targets and receiving yards during that span, while his target share climbed to 22.1% with Minnesota, while seeing a target on nearly 23% of his routes during that span. No tight end ran more routes than Hockenson once he joined the Vikings, while only Dallas’ Dalton Schultz had more end zone targets (6).

Hockenson faces a Philadelphia defense that just allowed Hunter Henry to catch five passes for 56 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 1. Because their perimeter defense is so tough, targets tend to funnel to the middle of the field against the Eagles and if Philadelphia’s game plan is to shut down Jefferson, Hockenson should see 8-10 targets once again. 

Quarterback

The elite quarterbacks struggled in Week 1, including Jalen Hurts, who threw for just 170 yards and touchdown, while losing a fumble. He added 37 rushing yards. The Patriots definitely have a strong defense, but the Eagles offense really looked rusty, which makes sense considering the first-team offense did not play during the preseason. Returning home, Hurts should return to scoring a ton of fantasy points, especially against a Minnesota defense that has been one to attack for years. They do have a new scheme, which we saw Sunday. With Brian Flores running the defense, we know Minnesota would blitz far more often this season. That was extremely evident in Week 1, as the Vikings blitzed 47% of the time against Tampa Bay, which is way up from their 18.9% blitz rate in 2022, the ninth-lowest rate in the NFL. Hurts, meanwhile, thrived against the blitz in 2022. He finished third in passing yards (1,139) against the blitz, while nearly 20% of his passing touchdowns came against the blitz. Minnesota still looks like a defense we can attack and just allowed a pair of touchdown passes to Baker Mayfield in Week 1. Expect a strong bounceback performance from Hurts Thursday. 

Running Back

The reports out of Eagles camp stating that Kenneth Gainwell is the RB1 were correct. At least for now. With Rashaad Penny a healthy scratch, Gainwell operated as the clear lead running back, logging 62% of the snaps and handling 18-of-22 running back touches (82%). He didn’t score but finished as the RB24 on the week, while D’Andre Swift saw limited work, logging 28.7% of the snaps and touching the ball just two times. After the game, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni said, “I never want to come out of a game where D’Andre Swift has two touches.” We’ll see if the running back usage is much tighter this week, as well as if Penny will be a healthy scratch again. But given what we saw in Week 1, Gainwell can probably be played as a flex if you are looking to solve injury woes. Of course, that’s if he is healthy, as he’s dealing with a rib issue. Given the fact that it is a short week, it is no guarantee he plays. If Gainwell were to miss this game, Swift would become a fine flex play. As of Tuesday, Gainwell has not practiced to start the week. If he is out, Swift would become a top-30 running back, while Penny will play football for the Eagles too, I guess. 

Wide Receiver

Philadelphia’s offense was a bit rusty in Week 1, which limited A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith’s ceiling a bit. Both wideouts were still strong, however, as Brown caught 7-of-10 targets for 79 yards, while Smith also hauled in 7-of-10 targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. The duo combined for 20 of the Eagles 30 targets. That’ll happen when Dallas Goedert posts a goose egg, which certainly won’t happen again. I liked the matchup for Philadelphia’s wideouts last week, but it is even more favorable in Week 2. Minnesota coughed up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts last season and just allowed six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown to Mike Evans in Week 1. This is a scary matchup for Minnesota, who blitz and rely on man-to-man coverage more than ever under Flores. The problem, however, is that their secondary just isn’t good enough. Like we stated earlier, the Vikings blitzed 47% of the time against Tampa Bay, which is way up from their 18.9% blitz rate in 2022, the ninth-lowest rate in the NFL And according to FTN Data, Brown saw a healthy 32.3% target share when the Eagles were blitzed last season, the seventh-highest rate in football. Smith, meanwhile, wasn’t too far behind, seeing a strong 29.3% target share against the blitz. He also posted an impressive 30.4% target share against man coverage last season (12th), while averaging 2.84 yards per route run (12th) and 1.91 fantasy points per target(nin9th) against the defense. 

We’ll see if there is an uptick in man coverage here from Minnesoita, as they ran it less than six percent of the time last week. But even if they go more zone-heavy, Brown averaged 1.84 fantasy points per target against zone last season, the fifth-highest mark among wideouts with at least 100 routes against zone coverage. Minnesota’s secondary really doesn’t stand a chance here. 

Tight End

There were a few high-end fantasy players held catchless last week. That includes Dallas Goedert, who failed to haul in his lone target. Sirianni also stated that the team can’t go a game without getting him the football so we could be looking at a squeaky wheel narrative here, which are always fun to chase. Last week’s matchup was also really difficult, but things should be better this time around. He still ran a route on a whopping 95% of dropbacks in Week 1, the highest rate among all tight ends. It was a brutal week for the tight end position in fantasy, but Goedert should bounce back this week.