Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots game for Week 2.
Week 2 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
MIA -3, O/U 46.5
Pace: MIA: 23.6 sec/snap (6th), NE: 20.5 sec/snap (2nd)
FTN Data Breakdown
- The Patriots averaged 20.5 sec/snap in Week 1, the second-fastest pace in the league.
- They used no-huddle 21.7% of the time, the third-highest rate.
- Tyreek Hill had 15 targets Sunday.
- He was the first-read on all 15 of them.
- Durham Smythe ran a route on 82% of dropbacks in Week 1, the seventh-highest rate among tight ends.
Quarterback
Last season, Brandon Staley and the Chargers had a plan to slow down Miami’s passing attack. Tagovailoa completed just three passes across the middle in that game, as the Chargers had a tremendous game plan in place. Because Miami uses more pre-snap motion than anyone, the Chargers would use their defensive backs to press Miami’s wideouts at the line of scrimmage, doing so a whopping 35% of the time. However, they would then drop into zone coverage, taking away the middle of the field. The Chargers would drop three defenders into deep middle zones very often, forcing Tua to throw outside of the numbers. He finished the day with 145 yards and a touchdown on 10-of-28 passing.
But Mike McDaniel and Tua had an answer this time around.
Tagovailoa was brilliant Sunday, throwing for a whopping 466 yards and three touchdowns. It was the best game of his career, as he made impressive throw after impressive throw. McDaniel’s scheme is so unstoppable and when Tua is playing at a high level, so is this entire offense. He’ll head to Foxboro to take on the Patriots, who typically play as much man coverage as any team in football. However, they have played much less man coverage against Tua and the Dolphins, which could happen again on Sunday night. Over his last three games against the Patriots, Tagovailoa is averaging just one passing touchdown and 14.7 fantasy points per game. New England just did a tremendous job against Philadelphia’s high-powered offense last week, but Tua and the Dolphins have too much upside. He remains a rock-solid QB1.
Running Back
With Jeff Wilson on injured reserve and De’Von Achane a healthy scratch, Raheem Mostert was the lead running back for the Dolphins last week. While he only carried the ball 10 times for 37 yards, he did find the end zone and dominated the playing time. Mostert played 74% of the snaps, while handling 12-of-15 running back touches for Miami. The Dolphins were behind for a good portion of the game against the Chargers, while the explosive passing game was working wonders. As a result, Miami posted a neutral script pass rate of 69.2%, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Mostert isn’t going to see 20 touches very often, if at all, but he did average 15.4 carries, 2.8 targets and about 13 PPR points per game in Weeks 4-8 last year, before Wilson joined the team. He also played around 68% of the snaps during that span. We’ll see if Achane is active this week, but Mostert should see enough work to warrant low-end RB2/high-end flex consideration.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill could not be stopped Sunday, catching 11 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns. Hill, who ranked second among wideouts in targets (33) and routes run (34) out of pre-snap motion a season ago, continued it against the Chargers, who tried to slow him down with press man coverage. However, Hill was used in so many different motions before the snap that it was impossible, especially with his speed. Of Hill’s 15 targets, he was the first read on all 15 of them. We’ll see just how much man coverage the Patriots run against Miami, as playing man against Hill would be a mistake. Last season, Hill flirted with a 35% target share against man coverage, while averaging a gaudy 374 yards per route run against the defense.
Jaylen Waddle had a quieter game Sunday, catching four passes for 78 yards on just five targets. Waddle saw low-upside usage as a rookie in 2021, sporting the league’s 14th-lowest yards before the catch per reception (5.5) and 15th-lowest average depth of target (7.0 yards). However, that role changed during his sophomore season, as Waddle’s yards before the catch per reception climbed to 11.3 and his aDOT jumped to 12.1 yards. Waddle paced the NFL in yards per reception (18.1) and yards per target (11.7). He’s going to have some huge weeks in this offense and is a weekly WR2.
Tight End
The tight end position is rough. If you are really desperate, Durham Smythe might deserve your attention. All we are looking for are routes and Smythe ran a route on 82% of dropbacks in Week 1, the seventh-highest mark among all tight ends. He played every single snap for the Dolphins and actually finished second on the team in targets with seven. The Patriots are really good against tight ends and just held Dallas Goedert without a catch last week. But Smythe is an every-down tight end in an explosive, pass-happy offense. You could do a lot worse.
Quarterback
It was a rough start for Mac Jones last week, but he ultimately finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback, throwing for 316 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles. In Bill O’Brien’s new offense, New England played really fast, averaging 20.5 seconds per snap, the second-fastest pace in the league in Week 1. And that was in neutral gamescripts, so it didn’t take the fact that they were chasing points into consideration. There was more movement and creativity in O’Brien’s offense, which is great for Jones. He only averaged 5.9 yards per attempt against the Eagles but a matchup against the Dolphins is more friendly. Given the pace and the fact that the Patriots are actually running a legitimate offense this season, Jones is going to be more viable in fantasy, especially in solid matchups like this one. He’s a solid QB2 ahead of this AFC East matchup.
Running Back
Rhamondre Stevenson was dealing with a stomach bug last week. So when he was losing work to Ezekiel Elliott to start the game Sunday, I thought he might be limited. And although Elliott had 12 touches against the Eagles, Stevenson still dominated the snaps, playing 72.5%, while touching the ball 18 times. There were even 10 plays where both Elliott and Stevenson were on the field together. Stevenson caught all six of his targets for 64 yards, as he continues to make a massive impact in the passing game. Stevenson’s 17.2% target share was the third-highest rate among all running backs last season, while his 89 total targets were also third-best at the position. He played 79.6% of the team’s third downs, the highest rate among all running backs. In Week 1, Elliott got some run on third downs, playing four to Stevenson’s seven, but Stevenson saved his day with elite usage in the two-minute drill. He played 90.4% of the running back snaps in the two-minute drill, which is where he recorded a handful of his receptions. You love that and you also love the pace that the Patriots played with, going no-huddle nearly 22% of the time in neutral gamescripts.
This is a good matchup for Stevenson. Miami was just destroyed on the ground by the Chargers last week. Austin Ekeler rushed for over 100 yards and touchdown, while Joshua Kelley posted 91 yards and a touchdown of his own. Per DVOA, Miami allowed 5.95 adjusted line yards, while only stuffing six carries at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. We didn’t see what the goal line usage might look like, as the Patriots only goal line opportunity came off a two-point conversion. Elliott was on the field for that play but it came after Stevenson had been on the field for several plays in a row. Stevenson can be trusted as a high-end RB2 in this favorable matchup.
Wide Receiver
The only Patriots wideout to even consider starting is Kendrick Bourne, who caught 6-of-11 targets for 64 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Bourne played 73-of-80 snaps and ran a route on 54-of-58 dropbacks (93%). He accounted for 22% of New England’s targets and over 40% of their air yards, while also seeing two end zone targets. We’ll see if DeVante Parker returns to the lineup this week, but Bourne should be added in all leagues, regardless if you plan on starting him or not. He’s on the WR3/flex borderline for me this week.
Meanwhile, feel free to drop JuJu Smith-Schuster. The veteran is not 100% healthy and is playing behind Bourne, Kayshon Boutte and probably Parker if he is active this weekend.
Tight End
Hunter Henry finished as the top tight end in fantasy last week, hauling in five passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. He basically doubled Mike Gesicki’s snaps and routes Sunday and in an offense that actually looks promising, Henry could return to posting low-end TE1 production. Don’t be surprised if he keeps it going this weekend, facing a Miami defense that coughed up the second-most fantasy points (14.9), second-most receptions (5.8) and fourth-most receiving touchdowns (0.59) per game last season. And to start the 2023 campaign, the Dolphins allowed a touchdown to Los Angeles tight end Donald Parham. Henry is a borderline top-10 tight end for me this weekend.
