Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams game for Week 16.
Week 16 Fantasy Football Breakdown: New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime (announcers: Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit)
LAR -4.5, O/U 46.5
Pace: NO: 26.0 sec/snap (7th), LAR: 27.3 sec/snap (18th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Chris Olave is fourth among wide receivers in air yards and first in unrealized air yards (1,007).
- His 3.57 air yards per route run ranks fourth among WRs with at least 70 routes.
- He is also second in deep targets with 31.
- The Rams have allowed nine touchdowns to opposing wideouts since Week 7.
- Since returning in Week 12, Kyren Williams is second among running backs in targets (22) and first in carries (89).
Quarterback
Despite missing Chris Olave (and still Michael Thomas) last week, Derek Carr tossed three touchdown passes and completed over 80% of his passes against the Giants. It was just Carr’s fourth finish as a top-12 fantasy signal caller all year long, first since Week 9. Assuming Olave can return to the lineup Thursday, Carr will be an intriguing second quarterback in superflex formats. The Rams pass defense hasn’t been as good lately. In fact, since Week 8, Los Angeles ranks just 21st in EPA per dropback allowed, while ranking 22nd in EPA per play. Meanwhile, over the last three weeks, only Arizona is coughing up more passing touchdowns per game than the Rams (2.7).
Running Back
Over the last three weeks, Alvin Kamara has not reached the 60% snap threshold once, though he has handled 48% of New Orleans’ rush attempts during that span, up from his season-long rate of 42%. Of course, Kamara remains heavily involved in the passing game, sporting a 21% target share during that stretch, while averaging about 19 touches per game. Kamara, who leads the running back position in targets with 78, despite missing three weeks, has seen at least a 17% target share in eight of his 11 games this year. Kamara has seen either a carry or a target on about 35% of his snaps, the fifth-highest rate in football and should remain busy Thursday.
Wide Receiver
Chris Olave missed last week’s game with an ankle injury, but it sounds like he’ll be able to return this week. Without Olave last week, the Saints utilized more multi-TE sets, only operating out of 11 personnel about 40% of the time. As a result, no Saints wideout eclipsed 60% of the snaps Sunday, and tight ends accounted for 35.7% of the targets against the Giants. With Olave back, he should command a ton of targets right away, though there is admittedly some risk he isn’t 100% and could aggravate his ankle injury. Still, if he is active, it’ll be tough to bench him. Olave carries so much upside, as he is fourth in the league in air yards, as well as first in unrealized air yards on the season (1,007). His 3.57 air yards per route run ranks fourth among all wideouts with at least 70 routes, while his 31 deep targets are the second-most in the league. Of course, he and Carr haven’t connected on the deep ball very often this season, but I cannot overlook the ceiling. And since Michael Thomas landed on injured reserve, Olave has drawn a target on 28% of his routes, which would rank top-five over the course of the season. The matchup, meanwhile, is strong, as the Rams have allowed nine touchdowns to opposing wideouts since Week 7, while eight receivers reached at least 80 yards against them during that span.
Finally, Rashid Shaheed is a potential upside flex if you are thin this week. In his first game back last week, he ran a route on 77% of dropbacks, catching 3-of-4 targets for 36 yards. The Rams have now allowed 848 yards on passes 20-plus air yards this season, seventh in the NFL.
Tight End
Without Olave last week, the tight ends played a huge role for the Saints, sporting a 35.7% target share. Juwan Johnson and Jimmy Graham both found the end zone, though it still is tough to trust anyone here from a fantasy perspective. No tight end even ran a route on 50% of the team’s dropbacks Sunday, while Taysom Hill only played 19% of the snaps in his first game back last week, while only lining up under center four times. Perhaps that usage climbs this week and Hill is always a threat to score a short-yardage touchdown. And the matchup is great, as the Rams are coughing up the third-most fantasy points (13.6) and sixth-most receiving yards (58.3) per game to opposing tight ends this season. If you are strictly chasing a touchdown here, the Rams have allowed seven scores to the position, the second most in football.
Quarterback
After posting just one multiple-touchdown game in Weeks 1-11, Matthew Stafford has now scored multiple touchdowns in each of his last four games. His touchdown rate was comically low to start the season, so it is good to see it bouncing back up. Over the last four weeks, Stafford ranks fifth in passing yards (1,060), first in touchdown passes (12), second in fantasy points and fourth in fantasy points per dropback (0.59). This isn’t the greatest matchup, as the Saints are allowing the sixth-lowest passing touchdown rate (3.5%), second-lowest completion percentage (57.3%) and fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.2), as well as the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (14.7). Still, Stafford is playing at an elite level right now, while the quarterback position is depleted. He’s on the QB1/QB2 borderline.
Running Back
Kyren Williams is obviously a must-start running back, as he holds one of the best roles in all of fantasy. Williams rushed for 152 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries Sunday, and since returning to the lineup back in Week 12, he has been the focal point of this offense. During that span, Williams has logged 80% of the snaps, has handled 74% of the rush attempts, 78% of the long down and distance snaps and 100% in the two-minute drill. He is also averaging a gaudy 26.5 touches per game, while ranking second among running backs in targets (22) and first in carries (89) during that stretch. With the Rams utilizing as much 11 personnel and spread formations as any team in football, Williams is benefiting from a ton of light boxes. In fact, Williams has seen eight-plus defenders in the box on just 4.8% of his carries this season, the lowest rate among qualified running backs. This week, he’ll face a Saints defense that hasn’t quite been the same against the run. 14.1% of the runs against New Orleans this season have gained 10-plus yards, the highest rate in the league.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp caught all eight of his targets for 111 yards and a touchdown Sunday, giving him 100-plus yards and a touchdown in each of his last two games. He’s also found the end zone in three consecutive contests, so it looks like Kupp is back to being an unquestioned WR1 in fantasy. Kupp will face a Saints pass defense that can be tough against perimeter wide receivers but do allow production to the slot, which is where Kupp lines up about 57% of the time. The Saints are allowing nearly eight targets per game to opposing pass-catchers from the slot this season, as well as 13.0 fantasy points per game.
Puka Nacua, meanwhile, has taken a bit of a backseat, though he still continues to see plenty of looks. Since Kupp returned to the lineup in Week 5, Nacua is sporting a healthy 27% target share, while drawing a target on 25% of his routes. This matchup certainly favors Kupp from the slot, but Nacua is also sporting a target share north of 28% against man coverage this season, which the Saints run 38% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee returned to the lineup Sunday, catching 4-of-5 targets for 36 yards. He did run a route on just 61% of dropbacks, a season-low rate, so perhaps he was a bit limited. Higbee only has a 13% target share since Kupp made his season debut in Week 5 and has not been a reliable fantasy option. The Saints have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this season (second most), so perhaps this could be a rare TE1 week from Higbee.
