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Kenneth Le
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars game for Week 10.
Week 10 Fantasy Football Breakdown: San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
SF -3, O/U 45.5
Pace: SF: 29.7 sec/snap (31st), JAC: 27.2 sec/snap (15th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Deebo Samuel has a 32.2% target share against zone coverage this season.
- He is averaging 1.83 fantasy points per target against zone.
- The Jaguars are playing zone 67% of the time this season.
- Jacksonville is allowing the most receptions per game to opposing running backs this season (7.5).
- Christian McCaffrey has a carry or a target on 38% of snaps this season.
Quarterback
Brock Purdy would absolutely love to have both Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back in the lineup this Sunday. Once a safe, high-floor fantasy quarterback, Purdy has now finished as the QB26, QB16 and QB11 over the last three games. He has zero multi-touchdown games with six turnovers during that span. Having this offense whole once again would do wonders for Purdy, especially against a Jacksonville defense that is surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season. Against zone defense this season, Purdy is completing nearly 74% of his passes, as well as 56% of his deep passes. The Jaguars, meanwhile, deploy zone coverage 67% of the time, a top-three rate in the NFL. If Samuel and/or Williams are back on Sunday, you feel much better about Purdy as a high-end QB2.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey scored again prior to the bye in Week 8, extending his insane streak. McCaffrey continues to see all of the work, seeing either a carry or a target on 38% of his snaps this season, the third-highest rate among all running backs. He is playing 80% of the snaps and handling 60% of the total rushing attempts, while averaging 21.1 touches per game. I love this matchup for him this week. Jacksonville has been a good run defense this season, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush (6th-best). However, because they play so much soft zone coverage, they bleed production in the passing game to running backs. In fact, the Jaguars are allowing the most receptions per game to opposing running backs this season (7.5). They are also coughing up the second-most targets (8.8) and third-most receiving yards (49.4) per game to the position. That seems ideal for CMC.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk has been operating as the lead wideout for San Francisco as of late, sporting a massive 32% target share over the last three games. Of course, Deebo Samuel has been sidelined, so that target share is going to come down as long as Samuel is back this weekend. Still, we know Aiyuk is the WR1 on this team most weeks, though it is often as simple as whether the opposing defense is playing more man or zone coverage. This week, San Francisco faces a Jacksonville defense that runs zone coverage at a top-three rate in the league. That could bode well for Samuel, who is sporting an insane 32.2% target share against zone coverage so far this season, while averaging a healthy 1.83 fantasy points per target against the defense. The Jaguars are also allowing the seventh-most yards after the catch in football, making this a perfect spot for Samuel.
Of course, Aiyuk still remains a rock-solid WR2 regardless, though his massive target share is obviously going to come down if Samuel returns. But overall, the Jaguars are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. Keep an eye on Samuel’s status throughout the week.
Tight End
We have also seen more consistency from George Kittle as of late. With Samuel out over the last two games, Kittle has caught 14-of-18 targets for 227 yards, sporting a 32% target share during that span. He’s a must-start player regardless, but we know he’s a bit more boom/bust when this San Francisco offense is at full strength.
Quarterback
Following the bye, Trevor Lawrence is looking to show some semblance of fantasy upside. So far this season, Lawrence has posted just three top-12 finishes. He is the QB16 in fantasy points and the QB18 in fantasy points per dropback on the year. Lawrence only has nine touchdown passes on the year and his eight pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line have a lot to do with that. Lawrence will face a San Francisco pass defense that was reeling before the bye week, coughing up 378 yards and two touchdowns to Kirk Cousins and then 283 yards and three touchdowns to Joe Burrow. On the season, 72.6% of the yardage against the 49ers has come via the pass, the seventh-highest rate in the league, so we’ll see if Lawrence can get it going this week. He remains on the QB1/QB2 borderline.
Running Back
Travis Etienne is obviously a must-start running back. I was completely wrong about him entering the season, as I thought Tank Bigsby would play more of a role. That has not been the case at all, as Etienne has played 81% of the snaps, while handling over 70% of Jacksonville’s rushing attempts. Etienne has seen either a carry or a target on 36.7% of snaps this season, the fifth-highest rate in the league, while averaging an impressive 22.2 touches per game.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley had a bit of a bounceback game before the bye, catching 6-of-10 targets for 83 yards against the Steelers. Still, Christian Kirk has clearly been Jacksonville’s WR1 as of late. In fact, since Week 2, Kirk is sporting a 24% target share, while being targeted on 22% of his routes. During that same span, Ridley has a 20% target share, while drawing a target on 18% of his routes. San Francisco is currently allowing 91.8 receiving yards per game to opposing number-one wideouts, the fifth-most in the league, so this is a good spot for whoever you believe is this team’s top wideout right now. Overall, however, the 49ers are also coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, as well as the second-most receptions per game to the position (16.1).
Tight End
Evan Engram caught all 10 of his targets for 88 yards back in Week 8. He now has run a route on 86% of Jacksonville’s dropbacks this season, the second-highest rate among all tight ends. Engram continues to provide such a strong weekly floor, despite not scoring a touchdown quite yet. He has at least five catches for 40 yards in all but one game this year and should remain in all fantasy lineups, despite the tough matchup against Fred Warner and company.
