Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Hindsight is a beautiful thing. Of course we knew the Bengals would be good this year! Allen Robinson finally succumbing to bad QBs? Duh!
With the 2021 Almanac in hand, what happens if we go full Biff? How good of a fantasy football team could we have drafted back in August?
Let’s find out. We’ll be using PPR average draft position from last August for this article.
Round 1: Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler finished as the No. 2 RB in PPR leagues. He was 30 points ahead of third and fourth place and nearly 70 points ahead of fifth. A big concern for Ekeler coming into the year was that he might not see goal-line touches. That fear ended up being way off base, as he finished with 11 rushing TDs, fifth in the NFL. And, of course, he tacked on an RB-leading 7 receiving scores on the year.
Round 2: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor was nearly the fantasy MVP this year after leading the league in attempts (317), yards (1,734), yards per carry with minimum of 100 attempts (5.5) and rushing TDs (18). Adding in his modest receiving work, and Taylor piled up over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and over 20 TDs.
Round 3: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
I was not expecting to name a QB this early in the perfect draft. But the rest of the Round 3 picks did not pan out, and Josh Allen stands out as the biggest 2021 difference-maker of the group. He finished as the fantasy QB1 again after throwing for 4,4087 yards and 36 TDs alongside 700 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs.
Round 4: Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp in Round 4 is such a steal. League-leader in receptions, yards and TDs. Second-most receptions and yards in a single season ever. He was a lock for 100 yards and a TD basically every week.
Round 5: Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews beat out Travis Kelce as the top-scoring TE in fantasy leagues this year. Andrews scored 279 PPR points, Kelce scored 252, and no other TE scored more than 200. He averaged a league-high 6.3 receptions per game and tied for the league lead with 9 TDs per game.
Round 6: Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Round 6 in last year’s drafts was pretty dicey. The actual best pick was probably Justin Herbert, but since we already took a QB in Round 3, we’re going WR here. Tee Higgins quietly finished among the top 18 WRs in the PPR points, including posting top-12 games at the position in three of his final five full games. Higgins had a hot stretch to end the year for fantasy playoffs, posting over 100 yards in four of five games with 4 totals TDs over those games.
Round 7: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
It’s insane to see that Ja’Marr Chase went this late in drafts last year. He finished as the No. 5 overall WR in PPR leagues. Chase notched an elite 13 TDs, which trailed only Cooper Kupp (16) and Mike Evans (14) on the year. Chase set a rookie record with 1,455 yards, which also ranked in the top five among WRs, and his astronomical 18 yards per reception was second (minimum 40 targets) in the league.
Round 8: Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
We pointed out Chase’s elite 18 yards per receptions above, but Deebo Samuel actually had more (and more than any other WR). Samuel averaged 18.2 yards per reception last year and caught 77 balls for 1,405 yards and 6 TDs through the air. Samuel also did work on the ground, carrying the ball 59 times for 365 yards and a ridiculous 8 TDs. Samuel was a league-winning pick in Round 8.
Round 9: James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
James Conner turned out to be one of the better late-round RB picks last season for multiple reason: First, he notched virtually all of the goal-line attempts and converted at a high rate. Second, Chase Edmonds got hurt for a significant portion of the season, which vaulted Conner into fantasy RB1 territory. Both of those things were known possibilities before the season, and it unlocked Conner’s ceiling as a result. He finished the year as the RB9 overall in PPR leagues (and RB5 in standard leagues). From Weeks 9-18, he was a fantasy RB1 in 71% of his games played, and his 18 goal-line carries and 10 goal-line TDs were both second-most in the league, trailing only Jonathan Taylor.
Round 10: Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Round 10 was pretty rough in 2021, but Mike Williams was the best of the bunch, even if he wasn’t perfect. He flashed an upside never seen from him before, posting three games with at least 25 PPR points, and he finished as a fantasy WR1 or WR2 in 50% of his games. He started strong and finished strong, but there was a significant lull in the middle of his season, indicating that his true season-long potential still hasn’t been realized. Or perhaps he’s just a boom/bust player for the rest of his career.
Rounds 11-plus
- Rashaad Penny, RB
- Rob Gronkowski, TE
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
- Cordarrelle Patterson, RB
Final Roster for the Perfect Fantasy Football Draft in 2021
- Josh Allen, QB
- Austin Ekeler, RB
- Jonathan Taylor, RB
- James Conner, RB
- Cordarrelle Patterson, RB
- Rashaad Penny, RB
- Cooper Kupp, WR
- Ja’Marr Chase, WR
- Deebo Samuel, WR
- Tee Higgins, WR
- Mike Williams, WR
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
- Mark Andrews, TE
- Rob Gronkowski, TE
