Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Whether you like it or not, every player in fantasy football comes with some level of risk. It could be injury risk, supporting cast concerns, age, or a number of other factors. Even the best players aren’t immune to risk, and your personal risk tolerance will impact who you’re willing to target at the top of drafts
In this piece, I’m playing devil’s advocate and identifying the biggest risk factor for the top-10 wide receivers in our FTN Fantasy rankings. I’ll evaluate how concerned you should be by each of these factors, and then it’s up to you to determine if you’re willing to stomach the risk.
One note: Every football player carries injury risk. Unless that risk is an outsized one — a known injury or a track record — assume that everything here is “assumed healthy.”
(Check out the rest of the Fantasy Pessimist series with quarterbacks and running backs.)
WR1: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams just handed Cooper Kupp a three-year, $80 million extension to show how much faith they have in their No. 1 receiver, and fantasy managers should have a similar level of faith when drafting Kupp. It’s hard to find something that could go wrong for the guy who led the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last year, but one cause for concern is potential regression for the offense as a whole.
Sean McVay runs the offense in Los Angeles, but the Rams had multiple members of their coaching staff get poached by other teams this offseason. The most notable departure was former offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell who took the head coaching job in Minnesota. Throw in the loss of some key players including Robert Woods, Andrew Whitworth and potentially Odell Beckham. and there’s a world where the Rams offense takes a step back this season.
Risk Level: Low
There’s a sizable gap between Kupp’s numbers in each category he led last year and the second-ranked player. He had 22 more catches than Davante Adams, 331 more yards than Justin Jefferson and 2 more touchdowns than Mike Evans. Even if regression causes him to take a step back in 2022, Kupp could still finish as the overall WR1.
WR2: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Much like with Kupp, there’s very little to be worried about when drafting Justin Jefferson at the top of your fantasy drafts. There’s a reason he’s one of the few receivers who gets drafted in the same range as the league’s top running backs, and we really have to nitpick to find any cause for concern in his game.
There was a coaching change in Minnesota this offseason as well, and I suppose things could go wrong for that reason. However, the shift from a defensive-minded coach (Mike Zimmer) to an offensive-minded one (Kevin O’Connell) should only be a good thing for Jefferson’s fantasy status. For the first time in this series, the Fantasy Pessimist is officially stumped.
Risk Level: Low
The only risk you’re taking when drafting Justin Jefferson is the opportunity cost of passing on a top-rated running back to select him. When it comes to the player himself though, fantasy managers can draft with confidence.
WR3: Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase erupted onto the scene during his rookie campaign in 2021. He and Joe Burrow picked up right where they left off at LSU and led the Bengals all the way to a Super Bowl appearance. In just one year, Chase has already established himself as one of the league’s premier receivers and he shattered numerous rookie records in the process.
The question with Chase is, how sustainable is his production?
Last year, Chase ranked fourth in fantasy points above expectation by scoring 40.2 points more than FTN’s model predicted. Luckily, even if Chase finished exactly at his projected total instead of above it, he still would have finished as a top-10 receiver. However, for every year a player exceeds expectations, there’s typically another one where they fall short, and fantasy managers need to account for the likelihood of a little regression when drafting Chase this upcoming season.
Risk Level: Moderate
Chase and the passing game were a large reason for the Bengals’ Cinderella run last year, and they should be one of the league’s best passing attacks once again in 2022. The likelihood of Chase being a bust is fairly low, but he’s a moderate risk level because of how difficult it’ll be for him to return value at his ADP. It’s not easy to finish the season inside the top three, and any regression for Chase this season would make it that much more difficult.
WR4: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Much like with Josh Allen, the risk with Stefon Diggs this season has to do with the Bills’ turnover on their coaching staff. Brian Daboll – Buffalo’s offensive coordinator for all of the Josh Allen era – left Buffalo to take the Giants’ head coaching job this offseason. It’s tough to measure how much of the Bills’ offense should be attributed to Daboll, but if the answer is anything more than zero, it could have a negative impact on the entire Bills offense.
Ken Dorsey – the man replacing Daboll – could do a number of things that wind up hurting Diggs’ fantasy value this season. He could call for a more balanced attack so the Bills pass less, he could try to get Buffalo’s other receivers more involved and reduce Diggs’ target share, or he could simply be a worse coach who lowers the ceiling of the entire offense.
Risk Level: Low
While the unknown aspect of a new play caller is mildly concerning, Allen and Diggs have established a fantastic rapport in their two seasons playing together. Allen should still be one of fantasy football’s best quarterbacks and Diggs will be his primary recipient. Even if the Bills’ offense takes a small step back, Diggs should have no problem racking up points of his own.
WR5: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
While Davante Adams has praised his new quarterback on multiple occasions this offseason, there’s no denying Derek Carr isn’t in the same tier as Aaron Rodgers. Up until now, Adams has spent his entire career catching passes strictly from one of the best to ever do it, and his move to Las Vegas will require a bit of an adjustment.
It’s not just a quarterback play that should concern Adams’ fantasy managers either, it’s a potential decrease in his overall market share. Last year, Adams was the target on a whopping 30% of Aaron Rodgers passes in Green Bay, the second-highest rate in the NFL. In a Las Vegas offense that also features Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, it won’t be easy for Adams to hit that 30% mark with better options around him in the passing game.
Risk Level: Moderate
From strictly a talent perspective, Adams is one of the best in the business. His presence will elevate the entire Raiders’ offense, but fantasy managers still have reasons to be concerned. Targets are king for receivers in fantasy football, and both the quality and volume of targets going Adams’ way are expected to decrease in 2022.
WR6: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Despite not having a top-10 finish on his resume through two NFL seasons, CeeDee Lamb finds himself at No. 6 on this list because his opportunity entering year three is astronomical. Last year, Lamb ranked 24th in the league in targets (120) and largely shared #1 receiver duties with Amari Cooper. Now that Cooper and his 104 targets are out of the picture, there’s a clear path for Lamb to carve out a much larger role in the Cowboys’ offense.
The problem is, Dak Prescott isn’t a quarterback who hyper-targets his No. 1 guy. The most targets a receiver has logged with Prescott under center was back in 2017 when Dez Bryant received 132 (which didn’t crack the NFL’s top 10 that year). Lamb could certainly surpass that number in 2022, but banking on him doing so is placing a bet on an unprecedented target distribution from his quarterback.
Risk Level: Moderate
Last year, the 10 most targeted pass catchers in the league averaged 163.8 targets. Even if Lamb sees an uptick due to Cooper’s absence, expecting an additional 40 targets or more is asking a lot. He has the talent to demand those looks, but he may not have a quarterback willing to look his way as often as fantasy managers are hoping for.
WR7: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In two years with Tom Brady, Mike Evans has accumulated 2,041 receiving yards and caught 27 touchdown passes. He’s the GOAT’s favorite red-zone target, and he’s as safe of a bet as there is to hit the double-digit touchdown mark again in 2022. The problem with Evans is, eventually Brady is going to start declining…
Right?
Brady will be 45 at the start of the season, and it’s very possible that this is the year his production finally catches up to his age. It’s not uncommon for the decline of an NFL player to happen rapidly, and if this is the year where Brady’s production takes a nosedive, Evans’ numbers will follow suit.
Risk Level: Low
Even prior to Brady’s arrival in Tampa Bay, Evans has been a fantastic option in fantasy football as he’s eclipsed 1,000 yards in every single season he’s played. For Evans’ fantasy value to take a serious hit in 2022, Brady’s decline would have to be “2015 Peyton Manning”-esque.
WR8: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
We can’t say with certainty where the Deebo Samuel trade rumors are stemming from this offseason, but one common narrative is Samuel doesn’t want to play as much running back. Before diving into the stats, one could assume that his rushing usage was what made Samuel an elite option last year, but if we use FTN’s Splits Tool to dive a little deeper, we can see that’s not the case:
As you can see, Samuel was actually a better fantasy performer in games where he played as a true receiver. The question now becomes, if he’s not getting touches out of the backfield, can he sustain his dominance as a pure receiver with an unproven Trey Lance at quarterback?
Risk Level: High
The 49ers are hoping Lance elevates the entire offense immediately upon stepping into the starting quarterback role, but that’s no sure thing. If Lance and Samuel don’t form an instant connection and Samuel doesn’t have the rushing stats to make up for a loss in receiving production, it could spell trouble for the star receiver’s fantasy output.
WR9: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill’s move to Miami should be great news for Tua Tagovailoa’s fantasy output, but it’s hard to argue it’s good news for Hill himself. Hill’s getting a clear downgrade at quarterback, will face stiff target competition with Jaylen Waddle, and will be playing in an offense that’s orchestrated by a first-time head coach and play caller in Mike McDaniel.
If the change of scenery isn’t enough to scare fantasy away from drafting Hill, his production decline over the latter half of 2021 might be. Once again, we can use FTN’s Splits tool to gain some additional insight, and it raises some red flags for Tyreek Hill:
Risk Level: High
While the move to Miami is a mild cause for concern, the second-half decline is a much bigger red flag. Teams don’t like to let superstar receivers leave the building very often, but Kansas City did exactly that with Hill. Is it possible they know something about their former receiver that we don’t?
WR10: Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Last year, Tee Higgins finished as the WR21 in full PPR scoring, so there’s a lot of speculation baked into his No. 10 spot on this list. Considering Ja’Marr Chase already cracked this list at No. 3, Higgins’ superstar counterpart is the primary reason he may not return value at his current price tag.
It’s not unheard of to see a team finish the season with two top-10 receivers – both Minnesota and Seattle have pulled this off in recent years – but it’s no easy feat. Considering Higgins is the clear No. 2 option on his own team, he’ll be the one with the tougher route to a top-10 finish.
Risk Level: Moderate
For Higgins to return value as the 10th receiver off the board, the Bengals will need to prove that their breakout performance in 2021 was no fluke. Joe Burrow finished 2021 ranked fifth in passing yards and seventh in TDs, and if he can repeat those numbers in 2022 there will be plenty of points up for grabs in Cincinnati even after Ja’Marr Chase gets his cut.
