Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Whether you like it or not, every player in fantasy football comes with some level of risk. It could be injury risk, supporting cast concerns, age, or a number of other factors. Even the best players aren’t immune to risk, and your personal risk tolerance should impact who you’re willing to target at the top of drafts.
In this piece, I’m playing devil’s advocate and identifying the biggest risk factor for the top five quarterbacks in our FTN Fantasy rankings. I’ll evaluate how concerned you should be by each of these factors, and then it’ll be up to you to determine whether you’re willing to stomach the risk.
One note: Every football player carries injury risk, obviously. Unless that risk is an outsized one — a known injury or a track record — assume that everything here is “assuming health.”
QB1: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Making the case for Josh Allen to be anything but an elite fantasy option in 2022 is no easy task. Buffalo was home to one of the best offenses in football last year, and Allen was the most important cog in that machine. If there’s any sliver of doubt surrounding Allen and the Bills entering 2022, it’s because another one of Buffalo’s key elements won’t be returning for Allen’s fifth season.
Brian Daboll has been the only offensive coordinator Allen’s worked with throughout his NFL career. Unfortunately for Bills’ fans, Daboll accepted the Giants’ head coaching job this past January, and his departure brings an element of uncertainty to Buffalo’s otherwise impeccable offense. On numerous occasions, Allen has praised Daboll and attributed much of his success to the offensive coordinator he’s been tethered to since entering the league, and it’ll be interesting to see what the offense looks like with a new play caller in town.
Risk Level: Low
Even if things “go wrong” for Allen and the Bills, it’s hard to envision him falling outside the top five QBs this year as long as he stays healthy. With Allen’s current price tag, you’ll be disappointed if he’s anything other than the No. 1 or 2 guy come season’s end, but he’s as close to bustproof as you’re going to get at the QB position.
QB2: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes has widely been viewed as one of the best (arguably the best) quarterbacks in the game since claiming the starting role in Kansas City back in 2018. For the first time in his career though, Mahomes will be entering the season without Tyreek Hill.
If there were any doubts around the impact Hill can have on an offense, the five draft picks and $120 million the Dolphins handed over to acquire him should indicate what he’s worth. In Kansas City, Hill’s blazing speed and lightning-quick agility were very often the focal point of opposing defenses. Without Hill garnering attention and lightening the burden for the Chiefs’ offense in 2022, more pressure will be placed on Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the rest of the skill position players to offset his absence.
Will Mahomes still be a great quarterback without Hill in the fold? Absolutely. Will he post elite numbers and carry your team to a fantasy championship? It’s not impossible, but it’s less likely that it was this time last year.
Risk Level: Moderate
Mahomes’ risk level is indicative of his ability to reach his ceiling rather than his chances of falling below his floor. He doesn’t possess immense rushing upside like many of fantasy football’s best quarterbacks do, and a lot of those guys can be drafted in the later rounds as well. The lack of rushing work paired with a major shakeup in supporting cast means Mahomes may once again be a great quarterback, but this time around it may not lead to great value at his current ADP.
QB3: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
On the offensive side of the ball, not much changed for Justin Herbert and the Chargers this offseason. They’ll be returning more or less the same offensive personnel, the same offensive coordinator and the same head coach. Much like with Josh Allen, it’s tough to make an argument against Herbert. If there’s one reason for concern this year though, it has to do with changes on the other side of the ball in Los Angeles.
Last year, the Chargers defense was one of the worst in the league. They allowed 27.0 PPG (tied for third worst), which meant Herbert and the offense were constantly asked to keep pace in shootouts. This offseason, Los Angeles aggressively attempted to improve their defense – most notably by acquiring Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson – which should lead to a much-improved unit in 2022. If their spending spree leads to friendlier gamescripts for the offense, we could see the Chargers shift toward a more balanced attack compared to their 62.5% pass rate in 2021.
Risk Level: Low
While some of the Chargers’ affinity for the passing game last year was due to gamescript, head coach Brandon Staley’s analytically driven approach plays a factor here as well. Analytics have taught us that passing is typically a more efficient approach than running, and the pass-happy philosophy in Los Angeles likely isn’t going away any time soon. There’s a chance an improved defense leads to a slight uptick in rush attempts and a slightly slower gamescript, but the Chargers’ passing attack isn’t one fantasy managers should be worried about entering 2022.
QB4: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson’s fantasy production has steadily declined since his record-setting 2019 season where he averaged 27.7 fantasy points per game. Over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 22.2 (2020) and 20.0 (2021) fantasy points – respectable numbers, but not what managers came to expect following his breakout campaign.
2021 in particular was frustrating for Jackson’s fantasy managers. The entire Ravens’ roster was battered with injuries, and Jackson himself missed five games down the stretch of the season. With a hopefully healthy Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards back in the fold, the Baltimore offense should be full steam ahead in 2022. The biggest question is, what will this offense look like when fully healthy?
With Baltimore’s top two running backs out of the picture last year, the Ravens passed the ball at a much higher rate compared to Jackson’s first two seasons. In 2019 and 2020, the Ravens ran the ball at the highest rate in the league, and in 2021 they were much closer to the middle of the pack. A return to a more run-centric offense could be a good thing for Jackson’s fantasy output because his electrifying rushing ability is the main reason he’s such a valuable asset in fantasy. However, if the return of two healthy running backs paired with potential injury concerns mean the Ravens reduce Jackson’s rushing attempts by just a small amount, it could have a sizable impact on his fantasy performance.
Risk Level: Moderate
Rushing quarterbacks are glorified cheat codes in fantasy football. Jackson’s one of the best the NFL has ever seen, but the Ravens are a smart organization and after their disastrous 2021 campaign, they may want to reduce the number of times they put their franchise passer in harm’s way. If just 2-3 rushing attempts per game and a small handful of touchdowns get stripped away from Jackson, that could have a substantial impact on his fantasy performance.
QB5: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
The biggest risk with Kyler Murray doesn’t have to do with his likelihood of accumulating massive fantasy points. It has to do with when he’ll score them.
Murray has been an outstanding fantasy option since joining the Cardinals back in 2019. He’s the hub of Arizona’s high-volume passing attack and he possesses the rushing ability to tack plenty of points on top of what he accumulates through the air. The problem with Murray is the passing attack he leads has tended to fall off during the tail end of the fantasy football season.
Per FTN’s splits tool, Murray’s fantasy totals drop nearly 5 points per game from Week 10 onward compared to Weeks 1-9. He’s consistently struggled during the latter portion of the season, and that’s exactly when you want your quarterbacks to be playing their best ball. We all play fantasy football to win championships, and banking on Murray’s production staying high during the fantasy playoffs is a risky proposition.
Risk Level: High
Murray’s in a weird situation where he could finish the season as a top five QB overall but still leave fantasy managers disappointed due to a lack of points scored when it matters most. Throw in the fact that he’ll be without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks of the season, and his route to finishing as a top-five QB becomes even more daunting.
