Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Fantasy football championships aren’t won in the early rounds of drafts. Anyone can draft a stud with their first or second round picks, but finding consistent production as the draft goes on is a much more daunting task. Typically, the person who wins your league is the one who found a gem (or a few) in those mid-to-late rounds and received top level production for well below a top-level price tag.
In this miniseries, I’ll walk through some of the less heralded fantasy players, identify what their ceilings are, and discuss the likelihood of them reaching those ceilings. In part three of this series, I’ll evaluate the 11th-15th ranked tight ends according to FTN’s expert rankings.
(I already covered quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers in this series.)
TE11: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: Top 3
Tight end might just be the most touchdown-dependent position in fantasy football, and being tethered to Josh Allen means Dawson Knox has a fantastic opportunity for touchdowns. Last year, Knox found the end zone 9 times (tied for first among tight ends) and his opportunity for touchdowns should be similar in 2022.
While Stefon Diggs is the clear No. 1 receiving option in Buffalo, there’s not a dominant second fiddle waiting to demand a similar target share (sorry, Gabriel Davis truthers). Last year, Diggs finished the season with 1,225 receiving yards while the Options 2-5 all finished between 500 and 700 yards. Even if the pie is sliced up relatively evenly after Diggs gets his cut, there will be plenty of opportunities available for Knox to accumulate fantasy points in bunches.
Likelihood: Low
Knox’s 9 touchdowns last year came on just 49 receptions, and repeating that touchdown rate won’t be easy. Touchdowns are a rather variable statistic in fantasy football, and there’s a very real chance Knox’s 2021 campaign was the equivalent of Robert Tonyan’s 2020 season. Still, if you’re waiting on tight end in your drafts, there are worse guys to take a flier on than Knox.
TE12: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: Top 7
Not many tight ends look great in their rookie year, but Pat Freiermuth showed flashes of dominance right out of the gates. Despite being in a Steelers’ offense loaded with skill position players, Freiermuth was able to finish the season as the overall TE12 in his first year in the league.
Freiermuth’s solid season was largely fueled by his 7 touchdowns. He quickly established himself as a fantastic option down in the red zone, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t dominate in that area of the field again in year two. If he can take another step forward in his sophomore season, those valuable red zone looks should keep coming.
Likelihood: Moderate
There will still be plenty of mouths to feed again in Pittsburgh, so it’ll be tough for Freiermuth to reach his ceiling based on targets alone. It’s also anyone’s guess what the offense will look like in year one of the Kenny Pickett era (or the Mitch Trubisky era), but if the rookie quarterback develops a quick connection with his number one tight end, Freiermuth has the talent necessary to make the most of his opportunity.
TE13: Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos
Ceiling: Top 5
With Noah Fant now out of the picture, Albert Okwuegbunam is stepping into a starting role on what should be a much-improved Broncos’ offense. While the offense will look completely different this year, no matter what it looks like, Fant’s 90 targets will be up for grabs – many of which will likely go to Okwuegbunam.
Denver’s new starting tight end has shown flashes during his first two NFL seasons, and now he’ll have the opportunity to put his talent on display via a full-time role with the best quarterback of his career. Year three is typically the breakout year for tight ends, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Okwuegbunam thrive given the changing circumstances in the Mile High City.
Likelihood: Moderate
While the excitement around the Broncos’ offense in general is warranted, I’m not sure the fantasy hype around Okwuegbunam will meet expectations. He’s much more of an in-line tight end than a hybrid wide receiver – great for real football, but not so much for fantasy. Pair this with the fact that Russell Wilson doesn’t target the tight end position often, and it’ll likely take a disproportionate number of touchdowns for the breakout to happen.
TE14: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: Top 5
Of all the names on this list, Mike Gesicki is the closest thing to a WR disguised as a tight end. He operates primarily out wide or in the slot rather than as an inline tight end, and he uses his athleticism and massive catch radius to cause fits for opposing defensive coordinators. While he’s not a top-two option in the Dolphins’ passing game, he should benefit from the top two guys taking some attention off of him.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle share one common trait every NFL player envies – blazing fast speed. With those two taking the roof off opposing defenses, the middle of the field could be wide open for Gesicki to consistently pick up chunk gains. He finished fifth at the tight end position in receptions last year, and if the new-look Miami improves as much as Dolphins’ fans are hoping for, those receptions could wind up being increasingly valuable.
Likelihood: Moderate
It’s not easy for a No. 3 option in the passing game to be fantasy relevant, but it’s easier to pull off at the tight end position than at wide receiver. Even if the star receiving duo gets all the glory in Miami, Gesicki can prove valuable if he establishes himself as Tua Tagovailoa’s safety valve.
TE15: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Ceiling: Top 7
The Patriots decision to ink not one, but two tight ends to massive contracts last offseason was a bit perplexing. Initially it was tough for fantasy managers to gauge who between Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith would be the number one option, but at least in year one, it was clearly Henry.
Henry outpaced Smith in targets, yards and touchdowns last season, and given the two’s respective roles in the Patriots’ offense, it looks like that should be the same story in 2022. An established role in an offense that knows how to utilize the tight end position well paired with some improved play out of Mac Jones in his sophomore season could wind up being great news for Henry and his fantasy managers.
Likelihood: Low
What the Patriots offense is going to look like in 2022 is anyone’s guess. New England lost their long-time offensive coordinator this offseason when Josh McDaniels left town, and there’s no guarantee the tight end position will be as valuable under their new play caller. Based on talent alone Henry could once again prove fantasy relevant, but the situation is a murky one.
