Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Putting one’s neck out there is a fundamental practice when you’re the CEO of #TeamHuevos. Hey, you have to risk it to make the biscuit. Every year, every fantasy football season, surprises occur, twists so shocking few, if any, ever see them coming. Gazing into the crystal ball and creeping out onto a very long limb, here are my top-10 boldest predictions among RBs in this The Year of our Ceaseless Pestilence, 2020:
1. David Johnson plays a minimum of 14 games and reaches 1,300 combined yards, 60 receptions with 8-plus total TDs.
How can it happen? The mathematics here are pretty simple. If the hand of God touches Johnson and injects Wolverine blood into his system, he’ll suit up for the necessary amount of games. Big ask, of course, but with minimal competition for touches and with Bill O’Brien committed to the veteran as his three-down workhorse he’s more than capable of averaging the needed 92.4 total yards per game over 14 contests. Remember, prior to dissolving into a heap of worthlessness after Week 7 last year, he netted 102.2 total yards per game and scored five touchdowns. Reportedly in phenomenal shape, Johnson is set to be a centerpiece in Houston’s high-flying offense.
2. San Francisco’s RBBC leader Raheem Mostert muscles up and pulls away from the pack, finishing RB20 or better in 0.5 PPR leagues.
How can it happen? His social media standoff with GM John Lynch and the Niners front office earlier this summer was only a brief dustup. With his financial demands satisfied, he’s slated to head up Kyle Shanahan’s ground committee. Outstanding in several advanced metrics last season, RB5 in YAC per attempt and RB2 in yards created per carry most notably, Mostert isn’t your classic late-blooming journeyman running back. Explosive and bulked up, he’s in position to pick up where he left off during the NFL postseason. San Francisco's unbending hog mollies up front combined with its rigid defense again set Mostert up for fantasy success.
3. Finally living up to the overabundance of #MandatoryMontgomery mentions, Bears RB David Montgomery silences his harshest critics and cracks the RB top-12.
How can it happen? Unable to squelch the crush, Monty, naturally, makes the list. As discussed previously, his magic number is 275. If HC Matt Nagy commits to him, his odds of righting last season’s wrongs increase exponentially. Trimmed down and quicker thanks to repeated chicken and quinoa dishes, he’s sure to build on his 20.1% missed tackle rate from his rookie year. Questions remain at offensive line and quarterback, but with a spring in his step, Montgomery is aiming to take a giant leap forward. If Nagy doesn’t get too cute with moronic insertions of Cordarrelle Patterson or Tarik Cohen, the sophomore will race past 1,300 total yards with 8-10 TDs. Recall Joe Mixon was RB12 in 2019 with 1,424 combined yards and eight scores.
4. Divisive rusher Leonard Fournette again eclipses 1,500 combined yards, 50 receptions and scores at least eight touchdowns.
How can it happen? The blatant disrespect fired in Fournette’s general direction is unfounded and unnecessary. He’s a divisive figure for reasons unknown. If you’re spewing vitriol, it’s time to reassess. He’s a rare workhorse running back in an improved offensive environment who’s a prime positive TD regression candidate. Last year he ranked No. 6 with 46 red-zone carries but scored a hilariously low three touchdowns. Sure, he’ll surrender 20-30 receptions to Chris Thompson and Laviska Shenault, but in his likely swan song with Jacksonville he’ll be ridden into the ground. On another 70% or higher opportunity share, 1,350-1,400 yards with 6-8 TDs is a believable outcome.
5. Come year’s end, perpetually underrated RB Chris Carson lands just inside the position’s top-10 in 0.5 PPR leagues.
How can it happen? Unfairly dissed by fantasy drafters, Carson isn’t receiving the draft adoration he deserves, which is fantastic for bargain hunters. Etched in stone, the first-down grinder will again be the primary running back in a conservative run-heavy Seattle offense. A punisher between-the-tackles, his 3.63 yards after contact per attempt and 23.5 missed tackle percentage both landed inside the top-10 among eligible rushers in 2019. With his hip healed, he’s in line to haul at least 70% and probably more of the opportunity share. For drafters who exercise patience at RB, there isn’t a finer Round 3 reward than Carson.
6. After scoring an underwhelming six times in 2019, Alvin Kamara at least doubles his TD output in the follow up.
How can it happen? Kamara earned a fantasy Purple Heart for his bravery and courage last season. Fighting through knee, ankle and back setbacks, he still topped 80 receptions for the third straight year and finished handsomely in yards after contact per attempt (3.18) and total missed tackle rate (22.2%). Despite his heroism some continue to blindly knock him for his six total TDs scored. A return to double figures in the category is an inevitability. After carrying the rock just 27 times inside the 20 last season, he should be in the 35-40 red-zone range this fall. Remember he scored 18 TDs just two years ago. Behind arguably the stingiest offensive line in the league, he primed to bounce back in a major way.
7. Aaron Jones, who has a kung-fu grip on Green Bay’s starting RB job, only experiences mild TD regression and finishes with at least 13-15 total scores.
How can it happen? Too obvious, like Peter King wanting us to “thank him for the tip” on his take Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first-round of fantasy drafts tip? Examining the industry room, Jones scores 13-plus times after a pacesetting 19-TD campaign is hardly a low-hanging take. He’s locked into at least 60% of the Packers’ opportunity share and earned high marks in yards created per carry (RB8) and YAC per attempt (RB17). More importantly, his red-zone role is fixed. Obscenely, he scored on 10 of 17 carries inside the five and 14 of 34 hauls inside the 20 last year. Efficient. With Green Bay forecasted to again rank highly in run-blocking efficiency, Jones is going to profit measurably in Round 2. Let your leaguemates fantasize about A.J. Dillon’s tree trunks. He’s a minor concern and nothing more.
8. Perceived top-20 veterans Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are outplayed by rookie upstarts D'Andre Swift and Cam Akers.
How can it happen? At this point in their respective careers, Gurley and Gordon glide with the power and grace of an elderly basset hound. Both witnessed immense declines in key advanced analytics areas last season, including yards created, evaded tackles and yards after contact. Swift and Akers have earned high praise from coaches and observers for their multidimensionality and overall pop. The numbers, whether superficial or deep, they accumulated suiting up for Power Five teams at the college level — Swift at Georgia and Akers at Florida State — were sensational. Err on the side of younger, fresher legs.
9. Pony keg Boston Scott packs a buzz in PPR leagues and finishes as a RB2 in 12-teamers.
How can it happen? Certainly better than autopicking Derrius Guice, Scott is one attractive late-round running back, usually available in the 110-130 overall ADP range. The clear-cut complement to Miles Sanders, he’s in a position to secure 9-11 touches per game working behind a top-10 offensive line. Wedged into a similar role from Weeks 14-17 last season he, on 15.4 touches per game, snagged 23 passes, averaged 87.5 total yards per game and amassed a galactic 3.97 YAC per attempt. Additionally, he was three-for-three on carries-for-TDs inside the five. View him as premium Tarik Cohen.
10. Zack Moss emerges as the Buffalo Bills’ primary RB and toes the line of the top-20 in 0.5 PPR.
How can it happen? If Devin Singletary’s demoralizing butter fingers continue to put ball-on-ground, a full-blown takeover could happen sooner rather than later. Recent local reports continue to describe daily Moss tackle blasts, a calling card from his days at Utah. Last season for the Utes he checked in with a 4.1 YAC (No. 1) per attempt and tallied the second-highest missed tackles total among all FBS backs. His contact balance, leg drive, powerful build (5-foot-9, 223 pounds) and reliable hands are ideal qualities. He won by attrition in college and is sure to finish authoritatively at the next level. In a run-often offense, he’s climbing, and rapidly.
