First Down Blog: Back to the well for David Montgomery

Multiple times each week, Brad Evans, in this space, will ramble on about whatever random, likely tequila-influenced fantasy football/betting thoughts are coursing through his often-moronic mind. Today’s topic: #MandatoryMontgomery, the running back who worked to ruin Brad's 2019.

Abracadabra. Hocus pocus. Shazam. 

Within the lexicon of sorcery, the above commands, when uttered by a silk-shirted performer through stage smoke haze, can make previously vanished objects suddenly reappear. 

That, my friends, is the beauty of illusion. 

Over the years, Barry Sanders’ escapability, Michael Vick’s effortless wrist flicks and Jerry Rice’s glue-coated hands mystified the masses. Their wizardry left opponents and witnesses wondering if not some form of up-the-sleeve trickery was at play, maybe a celestial power was. 

In fantasy football, magic is more easily defined. At running back, it stems from a single number, 275. Including a digit most believe is a harbinger of good luck, it’s only appropriate. 

Thumbing through the annals, every rusher who met or exceeded the touch total penetrated the RB2 class, at a minimum, in 12-team PPR formats. Based on the qualification, below are the worst fantasy performances among rushers who totaled 275-300 touches since 2010: 

Cedric Benson (2011) — 10.79 fantasy points per game, RB24 finish
Frank Gore (2017) — 10.85 PPR, RB24 
Alfred Morris (2013) — 11.14 PPG, RB19 
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2012) — 11.59 PPG, RB24 
Shonn Greene (2012) — 11.65 PPG, RB23 

Volume, again, is everything. 

This is precisely why #MandatoryMontgomery, a player cursed last year by this writer’s well-publicized proclamations about his impending greatness, is worth doubling down on. Plant the enchanted bean, invest in his services at RB25 (50.7 ADP) and climb a skyward stalk to a giant trophy. As denoted above, history is on your side. 

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Yes, David Montgomery drove all willing supporters to Jose Cuervo last fall. Some of us bleeding profusely on his hill are still struggling to cope. Largely selected in Round 3 of 12-team drafts, he failed miserably to return a profit. Though he recorded a laudable 20.6% missed tackle rate, he ranked terribly in multiple advanced categories including YAC per attempt (RB54) and yards created per carry (RB35). Equally uninspiring on the surface averaging 55.6 rush yards per game with 25 receptions and 185 yards through the air, he, despite harnessing 59.4% of the opportunity share and scoring seven total TDs, failed to measure up to mammoth expectations. The Big Noise #KissOfDeath tallied another victim. 

Montgomery isn’t absolved of wrongdoing, but to be fair, there were many uncontrollable factors working against him.

His footwork hype videos on social media mesmerized, but unassertive in his cuts last season, the tap dance routine proved costly behind Chicago’s shoddy offensive line, a unit that ranked in the bottom quarter in multiple run-blocking metrics. His 2.0 yards generated per carry before contact ranked in the NFL’s lower third. Add in his woeful underutilization as a receiver and he simply didn’t register enough across-the-board consistency to warrant anything more than flex consideration in shallow leagues. Matt Nagy’s ridiculous insistence on incorporating Tarik Cohen on early downs and Cordarrelle Patterson around the goal-line only compounded matters. 

Some will adhere to a “fool me once” approach with the sophomore rusher in 2020. After under-delivering he might as well rack three-yard carries for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. But with a new offensive line coach (Juan Castillo), new offensive coordinator (Bill Lazor), upgraded quarterback in Nick Foles and little-to-no competition behind him, the slightly motivated “done being nice” RB is slated to pull a rabbit from the hat. 

Nagy will still call the shots on offense, but Lazor’s proven track record amplifying ground efficiency during his days in Miami — with Lamar Miller — and Cincinnati — with Joe Mixon — bode well. As OC at those locales his teams ranked inside the league’s top-10 in yards per attempt three out of four years. If the Bears line displays competency and Nagy truly feeds Monty 65-70% of the workload, which the head coach has intimated, a breakout in range of 1300 combined yards and 7-9 TDs is on the horizon. 

Follow the volume. 

A vanishing act a year ago, Montgomery could be a magic man this season.