Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Putting one’s neck out there is a fundamental practice when you’re the CEO of #TeamHuevos. Hey, you have to risk it to make the biscuit. Every year, every fantasy football season, surprises occur, twists so shocking few, if any, ever see them coming. Gazing into the crystal ball and creeping out onto a very long limb, here are my top-10 boldest predictions among QBs in this The Year of our Ceaseless Pestilence, 2020:
1. A bulked-up Daniel Jones combines for at least 30 touchdowns, reaches 4,000 passing yards and 350 rushing yards en route to a top-five QB season.
How can it happen? Much-joked-about GM Dave Gettlemen may get the last laugh. Jones, as most inexperienced quarterbacks do, struggled through reads, progressions and turnovers in his first year. Inaccurate, evidenced by his 20-plus ranking in multiple completion percentage categories, he’ll need to make significant strides to live up to the above billing. With a better-than-advertised arsenal and a largely shoddy defense, the 30-TD claim really isn’t all that outlandish. His QB14 ADP (124.7 overall) is the free meatball sub on a punch card.
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick holds off Tua Tagovailoa, maintains the Dolphins starting gig for at least 10 games and cranks out a top-12 QB line in the process.
How can it happen? Leaves coloring, temperatures dropping, pumpkin pickings and Fitzpatrick overachievements — these are the rites of fall. Already back in action after a brief hiatus, the vagabond passer, by all beat writer accounts, is a lock to open as the starter Week 1 at New England. With a heavily upgraded roster surrounding him, particularly at RB (Jordan Howard and Matt Breida), he could pick up the blistering pace he left off with in 2019 (recall he was QB3 over the regular season’s final nine weeks). The sneaky scoring dualist, and his marvelous lumberjack-inspired face sweater, has considerable shocker special appeal.
3. Gardner Minshew rediscovers his short-to-intermediate touch from his Wazzu days, exceeds 3,900 pass yards, 350 rush yards and 26 total touchdowns, outperforming Aaron Rodgers in overall fantasy scoring.
How can it happen? Minshew, sticking with the facial hair theme, could dropkick the competition with similar gusto as he did the ‘rona. Sporting the highest deep-ball passer rating (122.0) among eligible passers last year, he was one of 2019’s biggest surprises. If he hones his accuracy in the 0- to 19-yard range, a breakout campaign occurs. Given Jacksonville’s projected generous defense, Jay Gruden as his new OC and the arrivals of Laviska Shenault and Tyler Eifert, the mustache should sock upper lips in Year 2. Don’t wait too long, superflex fanatics.
4. Josh Allen is outperformed by rookie running back Zack Moss in ground scores and falls short of 20 passing touchdowns yet again.
How can it happen? If Andre the Giant stood stationary on a sitdown route five yards out, Allen would overthrow him. As every completion percentage metric clearly shows, he’s woefully inaccurate. Stefon Diggs is capable of correcting Allen messes. He’s one of the most effective receivers in the league on curls, slants and comebacks. Still, only modest vertical gains should be expected for the QB. Also assuming his unrepeatable rush TD total from last season (9) dips measurably — a strong probability with Devin Singletary and the tackle-shedding Moss on roster — and it’s highly unlikely Allen delivers on his QB7 ADP promise.
5. Regression kicks in on Lamar Jackson as he tosses 26 or fewer touchdowns. In the end, he falls into the QB3-QB6 range in overall fantasy scoring.
How can it happen? No, this wasn’t written a half bottle of Herradura in. As previously disclosed, the MVP’s aerial production inside the 20 last year simply isn’t sustainable. Of his 39 red-zone tosses, 20 went for touchdowns. By comparison, Russell Wilson posted an identical TD total but on 20 more throws. Unfathomable. With history also working against him to duplicate what he achieved as a rusher — Michael Vick is the only QB in NFL history to surpass 900 ground yards twice in a career — his kingly status will likely be short-lived.
6. Patrick Mahomes rips open a can of whoop ass as he punishes the league for 5,000 passing yards, 375 rushing yards and 45 total touchdowns.
How can it happen? Admittedly, this is about as bold as predicting the sun will rise in the east or your overly conservative grandmother being offended by the lyrics to WAP, but the reading on the confidence meter for a stellar Mahomes season is sky high. If the reigning Super Bowl MVP simply breathes, he cruises into 40-TD territory. Remember, he was QB32 in red-zone completion percentage last season. Flanked by studs and adding Clyde Edwards-Helaire to the scoring bonanza, the signal caller earns every digit projected.
7. Matthew Stafford stays healthy, plays 16 games and ignites for 5,000 yards with 40 touchdowns.
How can it happen? Before a fractured back prematurely derailed his 2019, Stafford was blazing a trail toward league MVP. Over eight starts he averaged 312.4 pass yards per game and tallied 19 touchdowns. What’s most remarkable is how inefficient he was under the surface ranking QB26 in adjusted completion percentage and QB21 in red-zone completion percentage. If he again blitzkriegs teams deep (11.4-yard aDOT in ‘19), he could replicate what he accomplished in 2011. Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson and sticky-fingered rookie RB D'Andre Swift comprise a strong receiving stable.
8. Joe Burrow resets the rookie record books and overtakes Baker Mayfield as the first-year TD king with 28 end-zone connections.
How can it happen? Burrow banged last season with LSU, posting video game numbers across the board. Whether on short, intermediate or deep throws, he was on point, logging at least a 122.9 passer rating on each toss type while also tallying the second-highest adjusted completion percentage among FBS quarterbacks. Reportedly well ahead of the curve with OC Bill Callahan’s playbook and already shining in physical execution, he’s undervalued at his QB19 ADP. A.J. Green’s health is critical, but the greenhorn’s rushing ability raises the floor. Throw in Cincinnati’s suspect defense and a top-12 finish is certainly attainable.
9. Jameis Winston starts a handful of games during the most important phase of the fantasy football season — the playoffs. Similar to last year, he assists backers in their successful trophy quest.
How can it happen? From dodging shiny swinging scrotums to baseball cuts in pads, Winston has an unusual workout regimen. For fantasy devices, preparation techniques don’t matter, numbers do, and if thrust into the lead role at any point this season, the backup is sure to eclipse fences. Of course, Drew Brees is a headwind who would need to suffer a significant injury for Winston to ascend, but paint the picture. Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, top-three offensive line — the environment is incredibly enriching. Boneheaded mistakes aside, he would easily be a QB1 as New Orleans’ primary passer.
10. Jalen Hurts starts at least three games for the Philadelphia Eagles and finishes inside the top-seven in position scoring each week.
How can it happen? The injury (or COVID-19) imp would obviously have to lay the foundation, but it’s not like Carson Wentz is an ironman. He missed eight games over the past three seasons. If Hurst is thrust into the starting lineup at the most opportune time, he has reasonable odds to emerge as a league winner. In Lincoln Riley’s Air Raid system at Oklahoma, he was positively radiant. Sharp on all throws — 116.5, on 0- to 9-yard tosses, was his lowest passer rating — and a wrecking ball on the ground (1,298 yds, 20 TDs), he’s the next Cam Newton or Lamar Jackson. There may not be a better late-round lottery ticket in deep leagues.
