Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Underwhelming performances occur every season. Bust rates at QB, right around 35% over the past decade, are the lowest of the major positions, but missteps do occur. Using ADP as a guide, this Noisey mouthpiece will attempt to project pitfalls to avoid. Ultimately, the vast majority will leave yolk on the face, but that my friends is what it means to be a member of #TeamHuevos. Below are my top LAMES at the quarterback position:
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
(ADP: 26.7, QB1)
This might rank up there on the spectrum of absurdity with Herman Cain tweets from the grave, but the reigning QB king may soon relinquish his title. After all, among consensus rankers, Jackson is viewed as the top race car fixed atop the pole position. He’s a modern-day Michael Vick, a dual-threat destined to accumulate otherworldly across-the-board numbers. His production last season rewrote the history books. But ask yourself, is it sustainable? Examine his underlying data beneath a magnifying glass and an immediate conclusion is drawn.
Jackson is more than capable of again surpassing 910 rush yards, but he would be the first passer in league history to accomplish the feat. And of course, there’s a reason why the club drafted J.K. Dobbins. Jackson’s projected accomplishments on the ground are far more believable compared to him crossing the 30-passing-TD threshold for a second straight season. The numbers don’t lie. Last fall, he chucked 20 TDs on 39 red-zone attempts. Bananas. As a comparison, Russell Wilson equaled the TD output, but it took him an additional 20 throws. Simply put, it’s highly unlikely the reigning MVP duplicates the 36 end-zone strikes logged in ‘19. Throwing accelerant onto the fire, he was merely average in a number of completion percentage categories — QB12 in red-zone, QB14 in overall adjusted and QB23 in deep ball.
In the end, circumventing Jackson for, say, Patrick Mahomes (QB2, 32.0) or another premium passer several picks later is the savvy move. Recall, Drew Brees, nearly a decade ago, was the last QB to finish atop the position ranks in consecutive years.
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Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
(QB7, 95.4)
Over the past few months a vigorous tennis match has occurred between these ears. Back and forth. Back and forth. Finally, at double-break point, a victor has been crowned.
Allen’s scoring duality is an attribute all fantasy drafters, this ninnyhammer included, constantly seek. It raises a player’s floor while providing week-to-week scoring consistency. But there are unmistakable flaws to Allen’s game. If his aggressiveness on the ground subsides, he may not come close to living up to his QB7 ADP.
Last year, the Bills passer ranked outside the top-25 in every completion percentage category invented — adjusted, red-zone, deep-ball, under pressure, etc. Adding Stefon Diggs to the mix greatly enhances his chances of universal improvement, but with so many misfires to his name, it may only slightly raise the bottom line. Heck, he would probably overthrow Bol Bol on a 5-yard slant.
For Allen to meet buyer demands, his rushing stats remain stable, which seems unlikely. As most passers age a sharp regression in yards and touchdowns almost always occurs. Banking on another nine ground scores is an exercise in futility. Unless his vertical execution jumps by leaps and bounds, he’s likely to leave investors in the red.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
(QB12, 112.8)
Former snuggle buddy Olivia Munn and fantasy owners alike have a bone to pick with Mr. Discount Double Check. A possible lack of bedroom adroitness aside, the once-revered future HOFer is coming off a season filled with flaccid results.
Expect more of the same.
It’s been a bewildering last few months for the aging passer, a period in which Green Bay administrators failed to address the glaring need at wide receiver via the Draft and free agent acquisition Devin Funchess opted out. A full season of Davante Adams — who was plagued by plantar fasciitis for a significant portion of 2019 — is a godsend, but without a definitive second downfield weapon one has to wonder if Rodgers should still be considered a surefire QB1 in 12-team leagues. Yes, blame Adams’ absence all you want, but last fall the signal caller faltered in several key areas. Though his deep-ball zip didn’t suffer (111.2 passer rating), he experienced dramatic declines in adjusted completion percentage (QB23) and red-zone completion percentage (QB17).
The arrival of A.J. Dillon and his house-squatting thighs may signal a desire for Matt LaFleur to ground and pound more. A season ago, the Packers only called “run” on 40.2% of their snaps and passed the third-most times inside the red-zone. If that happens, Rodgers, no matter how motivated to prove his doubters the franchise decision makers wrong, will continue his slow decline. Exceeding 4,000 yards and 26 TDs feels like a stretch. Most sportsbooks tend to agree.
