Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Whenever you hear about a team making significant halftime adjustments, you get a former player tut-tutting about how there really isn’t that much time, and really it’s just about taping you up and getting back out there, and any real adjustments are minor. In a sense, adjustments over an NFL team’s bye week are the same. After all, part of the point of a bye week is literally time off. Greg Olsen wasn’t changing his approach to football when he used his byes to do color commentary, after all.
But there’s not no impact. Whether it’s taking the time to get healthy, changing game plan, or just luck, the bye week represents a pretty distinct before-and-after scenario in the NFL, and that gives us a fun way to look at the numbers.
Today, we’re taking a look at the players whose PPR points-per-game average rose or dipped by the most from before their bye to after to see if there are any lessons to take away. Players had to play at least four games on either side of the bye to qualify.
Post-Bye Risers
Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets
PPR points per game before the bye: 3.7
PPR points per game after the bye: 17.7
Increase: +383.8%
The Jets eased Elijah Moore in as a rookie. He totaled 8 receptions on 20 targets for 66 yards in his four games before the team’s Week 6 bye. And then it turned. After a pedestrian Week 7 (1 reception, 6 targets 13 yards, but also a 19-yard TD run), Moore averaged 5.7 receptions on 8.5 targets for 82.3 yards and 18.9 PPR points over his next six games before a quad injury robbed him of the rest of the season. Still, he enters 2022 as the clear No. 1 in New York, and if the second half is any indication, he could definitely be fantasy start-worthy.
Rex Burkhead, RB, Houston Texans
Before the bye: 2.5
After the bye: 10.8
Increase: +328.1%
This is less of a Rex Burkhead point than it is a “that Houston backfield was weird” one. The Texans employed at least six running backs who have had marginal fantasy relevance last year, but by the back half of the season, Phillip Lindsay was in Miami, Mark Ingram was in New Orleans, Jaylen Samuels and Royce Freeman were Jaylen Samuels and Royce Freeman, and David Johnson was hurt/inactive. Burkhead had all of 3 touches through Week 7 and went into the team’s Week 10 bye with 67 yards and a touchdown for the season. He wasn’t that special down the stretch, either, outside of his 149-yard, 2-score outburst in Week 16. But the moral here is that the only back the Texans have brought in this offseason is Dare Ogunbowale, so (a) you’d have to assume they’ll draft at least one person, and (b) that back will have every opportunity for some big games.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Before the bye: 4.8
After the bye: 12.2
Increase: +156.5%
Brandon Aiyuk was famously in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse early in the season, but he worked his way out of it, putting up eight games of double-digit PPR points out of 12 outings after the bye. He’s still behind Deebo Samuel and George Kittle in this offense, but Aiyuk offers plenty of weekly upside.
Allen Lazard, WR, Green Bay Packers
Before the bye: 6.6
After the bye: 16.6
Increase: +152.5%
On the plus side, Allen Lazard scored 3 times before the Packers’ Week 13 bye. On the downside, he only topped 52 yards once in that span and had five games of 20 yards or fewer. Then after the bye, he had games of 6-75-1, 2-23, 2-45-1, 6-72-1 and 5-75-2. He was fantasy’s WR8 in Weeks 14-18, and that was with Davante Adams WR3 in that time. Oh, and you might have heard, Lazard is the team’s WR1 now.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Before the bye: 7.7
After the bye: 19.3
Increase: 149.6%
Amon-Ra St. Brown is probably the name that came to mind when you saw this exercise. He was a semi-popular late-round sleeper last year, only to produce 43 yards in Weeks 1-3 combined and average 35.7 yards heading into the Lions’ Week 9 bye. He wasn’t exactly electric immediately after (4.0 receptions for 34.0 yards in the next three games), but then the Lions changed course. St. Brown had double-digit targets in each of the last six games, with 8-plus receptions every time, and he was behind only Cooper Kupp in fantasy scoring in that time. It’s great news, but one sizable caveat: His production almost perfectly coincided with injuries to D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, and they are both back in 2022, and D.J. Chark has been added as well. Is St. Brown a stud now, or was he just the last man standing in Detroit?
Post-Bye Fallers
Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins
Before the bye: 12.3
After the bye: 3.6
Decrease: -70.8%
To be fair, the Dolphins had a late bye in 2021, so Myles Gaskin only had four games in the “post-bye” section, and he was being phased out, totaling 19 carries for 86 scoreless yards in that stretch. But it was earned, as he averaged 2.8 yards per carry in Weeks 8-13 and was only kept relevant by a few touchdowns. There’s a reason the Dolphins signed Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert this offseason.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Buffalo Bills
Before the bye: 15.0
After the bye: 5.2
Decrease: -65.2%
Emmanuel Sanders averaged 6.5 targets and 68.8 yards before the Bills’ Week 7 bye. Those numbers dropped to 4.1 and 26.6, respectively, after, including under 30 yards in seven of eight games and no touchdowns after Week 5. There’s a reason Gabriel Davis came on late, and there’s probably a reason Sanders hasn’t drawn a lot of interest in free agency. Great career, but it might be nearing its end.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Before the bye: 11.9
After the bye: 4.5
Decrease: -62.1%
This was probably a Jerry Jeudy thing more than a pre-/post-bye thing. Per our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool, Courtland Sutton saw 4.8 fewer targets and 64.5 fewer yards (11.8 fewer PPR points) in games Jeudy was active. It was also probably a Teddy Bridgewater thing — Sutton saw 1.7 fewer targets and 12.5 fewer yards when Drew Lock started. Either way, no one is happier to see Russell Wilson come to town than Sutton.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (now Miami Dolphins)
Before the bye: 21.1
After the bye: 10.7
Decrease: -49.6%
Tyreek Hill scored 9 touchdowns last year. Eight came before the Chiefs’ Week 12 bye. He had double-digit targets 10 times. Eight came before the bye. He had 20-plus PPR points seven times. Six came before the bye. His three worst fantasy games of the season, and five of his bottom eight, all came in the Chiefs’ six post-bye games. Hill obviously has massive upside in Miami, as he would anywhere, but it’s worth wondering how much the move off Patrick Mahomes will mean for him.
Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Before the bye: 18.6
After the bye: 10.7
Decrease: -42.5%
Marquise Brown had at least 60 yards in five of the Ravens’ seven pre-bye games. And then he had 116 yards in Week 9 after the bye. And then … he never topped 55 the rest of the season. He scored six times in seven games before the bye; he scored zero times in nine games after. His average depth of target before the bye was 15.8 yards, and never dipped below 8.0 in a game. After the bye, his aDOT was 8.0 yards and was under 8.0 in six of nine games. Lamar Jackson being sick and injured hurt, but Brown’s usage tanked in the second half. If he wants to be a big fantasy name in 2022, his aDOT needs to climb back to pre-bye levels.
