Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Just when we thought we’ve seen it all with this NFL offseason, the Packers and Raiders went and sent a seismic shockwave through the NFL. Green Bay is trading all-world WR Davante Adams to Las Vegas in exchange for two 2022 picks. For his trouble, Adams is getting a massive five-year, $141.25 million contract.
(Follow along with all of the big free agency reactions here!)
Green Bay placed the franchise tag on Adams just over a week ago. Adams was slated to make $20.145 million on the tag, but he made it abundantly clear that he was not going to sign the deal. The cash-strapped Packers reached an impasse with Adams that prompted this move.
There’s so much to unpack with this deal, but we absolutely have to start with Aaron Rodgers. The veteran quarterback played a game of chicken with Green Bay over the last two months, but ultimately decided to sign a three-year deal that pays him a league-high $50 million per year. Rodgers has been quite vocal about his affinity for Adams, and who can blame him?
Adams has been a model of consistency in his time with the Packers, topping double-digit scores in five of his last six seasons. Over the last four years, Adams has blossomed from solid No. 1 receiver to one of the league’s upper-echelon players. During that span, he’s averaged 108 catches, 1,328 receiving yards and just under 12 touchdowns per season. That’s Hall of Fame levels of production that simply cannot be replaced by what the Packers currently have in-house.
Without Adams in the mix, Green Bay currently has Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb atop the depth chart. Yikes. This is absolutely devastating for Rodgers short-term fantasy outlook. The league’s reigning back-to-back MVP owes a lot of his success to Adams’ ascendency. To be fair, Rodgers is still playing at an elite level and can make the proverbial shine. The Packers could also address the position in next month’s draft. But without Adams, it’s going to be very difficult to confidently endorse Rodgers as a top-12 fantasy quarterback.
As for Adams, he heads to a now loaded AFC West where he’ll be teamed up with his former college signal caller in Derek Carr. Las Vegas is a team in transition with Josh McDaniels taking the reins after a failed regime under Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden. While they’re several years from their Fresno State days, the familiarity between the two is a plus. At the same time, Carr is a sizeable step down in class from what Adams is used to with Rodgers. Sure, he’s a serviceable starter, but Carr simply hasn’t shown the ability to play even close to Rodgers’ level.
To be fair, Adams doesn’t need an MVP-level signal caller to remain extremely productive. And let’s not forget that Carr was more than good enough to help propel Hunter Renfrow to a top-10 fantasy finish this past season. While we may not view Adams as the slam dunk No. 2 fantasy wideout in 2022, he’s still very clearing a front-end WR1 who will likely be one of the top five selected in drafts.
Of course, Adams’ gravitational force will pull targets away from Renfrow, and to a lesser extent, from Darren Waller. Renfrow was a surprise breakout in 2021, posting 103 catches for 1,038 yards and nine scores. With Adams and a healthy Waller in the mix, it’s tough to envision a scenario where Renfrow gets remotely close to the 128 targets he saw last season. Renfrow’s short-term arrow is pointing down, as he’ll likely be third in the target pecking order behind Adams and Waller. It’s fair to view him in WR4 territory for now.
Likewise, Waller is no longer the top receiving option for the Raiders. That said, we should still expect McDaniels to lean fairly heavily on Waller. He’s just too much of a mismatch to not leverage in a fairly big way. Waller remains locked in as a top-6 fantasy tight end.
Last and certainly not least is Carr. While Rodgers may be singing “All By Myself” alone in a dimly lit bathroom shower, Carr has to be doing his best Michael Flatley River Dance impersonation right about now. Adams gives Carr the best wide receiver option of his career. This generation’s Philip Rivers, Carr has consistently produced fantasy seasons that have quietly been not that bad. This past season, he managed a 13th-place fantasy finish among quarterbacks that came with very little fanfare. While it’s a stretch to vault Carr up into the QB1 conversation, he now has to be taken seriously as a front-end QB2 option. That means Carr will be very draftable in the late-rounds of 2022 fantasy football drafts.
