Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?
Our favorite things about fantasy football – drafting a team, bidding on the waiver wire, negotiating trades and making start-sit decisions every week for four months – have certainly helped grow the NFL.
Sometimes, though, real football and fantasy football diverge and the fantasy community’s view of one player can be a bit different than that of NFL GMs, coaches, players and the few fans left who don’t dabble in this game.
Understanding who is better in fantasy football than in real life football can be a good tool for drafting and managing teams. We all want the uber-talented players with a ton of opportunity who check every box, but there are only a couple of those guys out there.
It’s important to know which players your league mates don’t value as much as they should, and which they overvalue because of talent alone. Here, we’ll cover a few players who are better in fantasy football than they are in real life and a few who are better in real life than they are in fantasy.
Better in Fantasy
Cheat Code QBs
If you’ve played fantasy football, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the mobile quarterbacks are leading off this section. Guys like Jalen Hurts, Trey Lance, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson have shown that rushing upside can skew fantasy results, even if the latter two have proven that they’re very good real-life quarterbacks too.
For example, Cam Newton and Tyler Huntley gave managers QB1-level production down the stretch last season despite ranking 43rd and 29th, respectively, in PFF passing grade. In Week 15, both finished top-five at the position despite combining for less than 400 total passing yards. The kicker was their combined 140-plus rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.
To further illustrate the benefit of a quarterback’s mobility, let’s look at DraftKings Sportsbook’s rushing prop totals. Trey Lance’s rushing props are set at 500.5 yards and 5.5 touchdowns. If he rushed for 500 yards and five touchdowns, he’d accumulate 80 fantasy points on rushing alone.
Tom Brady, for example, generated just 20 fantasy points from rushing stats last season. That gives Lance a 60-point cushion between his and Brady’s fantasy points from passing stats. Is he going to match Brady in the passing game? Of course not. But getting a 60-point handicap certainly bridges the gap between a first-year starter and the greatest QB of all time.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here, Leonard Fournette represents his fellow pass-catching running backs. They come in all shapes, sizes and skill levels, and Fournette happens to be one of the more well-rounded receiving backs in the NFL.
He’s a more productive rusher than third-down backs and he’s finished as an RB1 in two of the last three seasons, but Fournette doesn’t rank among the league’s best in nearly any rushing metrics. Instead, he collects a handful of dump-offs each game on his way to fantasy relevance.
Interestingly enough, he isn’t necessarily a great receiving back, either. Despite finishing third in receptions among running backs and drawing the most first-read targets of any back in the league, Fournette ranked outside the top-30 in PFF’s running back receiving grades. Still, his volume is great for fantasy managers and his track record warrants an ADP in the back of the second or top of the third round.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
James Conner finished sixth among running backs in points per game in 2021 despite averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and amassing only 752 rushing yards. How did he do it? Conner was great at the two most important things for fantasy running backs. Catching passes and scoring touchdowns.
He was remarkably inefficient on the ground, but that doesn’t matter since he averaged 21 opportunities per game – including 5.4 targets – in five games without Chase Edmonds in the lineup. It also helped that Conner scored on over 7% of his rushing attempts, more than double the league average.
It’s rare to find bruising goal-line backs with good enough hands to see receiving work, but Conner is the exception. He’s struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, but if he’s on the field, he’s getting valuable touches and producing for fantasy, regardless of how ugly (and slow) it might look.
Better in Real Life
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb is the poster child for “better in real life” when it comes to running backs. Everyone and their mother knows he’s an incredible NFL running back, but his lack of receiving work and talented teammates drag his fantasy production down to levels that seem silly when you watch him play.
According to FTNFantasy’s advanced rushing stats, Chubb finished No. 1 among running backs in gash runs (10-plus yards) and third in explosive runs (15-plus). Additionally, he ranked third in yards per carry and second in yards per carry after contact. No matter which way you slice the data, Chubb always pops up as one of the best runners in the NFL.
It doesn’t help his fantasy value, however, that he shares the backfield with two other really good backs. Both Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson have had success when called upon, so the Browns like to keep their bell cow as fresh as possible. If Chubb came into more receiving work, or if one of his elite backups gets traded, his fantasy value could finally reflect his real-life value.
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Since he entered the league, A.J. Brown has earned a top-five PFF receiving grade, putting him in a class of receivers who typically produce elite fantasy seasons. Unfortunately for Brown, health and scheme have held him back.
He had some massive performances in Tennessee, especially in 2020 when he finished seventh in fantasy points per game, but the Titans have had one of the league’s more run-heavy offenses over the last few years. That likely won’t get much better in Philadelphia, as the Eagles ran the ball at the highest rate in the NFL per FTN’s Pace Tool. Thankfully for fantasy managers chasing Brown’s talent, he garnered a target on 28% of his routes in 2021, the fifth highest mark among receivers.
It’s also worth noting that Brown caught passes from Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill throughout his first three seasons. While Tannehill did revive his career, he’s far from an elite quarterback. Brown’s new quarterback, Jalen Hurts, has already taken a step forward as a passer, but his 16 passing touchdowns won’t do much for the star wideout’s fantasy value.
DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
DJ Moore checks every box of an elite receiver, but he’s struggled to get into the end zone his entire career. Thanks to just 14 touchdowns through four seasons, Moore has failed to finish any higher than 16th in fantasy points among wide receivers.
Without including touchdowns, Moore would have finished top-14 in fantasy points per game in each of the last three seasons, showing that he’s always in the upper echelon with regards to receptions and receiving yards.
In 2021, the Maryland product earned a target on an elite 25% of his routes and ranked 6th in the NFL in first-read targets per game. Carolina drew up plays for Moore often, and that bodes well for him in 2022 when we consider his quarterback change. Baker Mayfield targeted his first read on 72% of his throws, good for fourth in the league.
If he can find the end zone a few more times, this could finally be the year Moore’s fantasy production matches his real-life production.
